2013年-世界发展银行全球_Turkey_Green_Growth_Policy_Paper___Towards_a_Greener_Economy_112页_5mb

Turkey Green Growth Policy Paper: Towards a Greener Economy

Core Content

This report, titled Turkey Green Growth Policy Paper: Towards a Greener Economy, is prepared by the World Bank for the Ministry of Development (MoD) to support Turkey's vision of greening its economy while maintaining growth. It is part of the World Bank Turkey Green Growth Technical Assistance Program and provides an analytical basis for stakeholder consultations aimed at integrating environmental sustainability into the mainstream economic growth agenda.

The report explores the opportunities and challenges of transitioning to a green growth model, emphasizing the importance of aligning with the EU Environmental Acquis. It outlines a working definition of green growth in Turkey as the implementation of environmental policies in strategic sectors to achieve Turkish and EU standards, with a focus on resource efficiency, clean production, and reduced emissions intensity, combined with policies that foster employment and innovation in environment-related sectors.

Main Viewpoints

• Green Growth Concept: Green growth is seen as a pathway to reconcile economic growth with environmental sustainability, emphasizing the potential for economic opportunities through environmentally sustainable technologies.
• Environmental Footprint: Turkey has a relatively low but rapidly increasing environmental footprint compared to other OECD and emerging economies. It has lower emissions and energy use per capita, but its CO2 emissions are projected to triple by 2030.
• EU Compliance as an Opportunity: Aligning with EU environmental standards offers significant potential for greening the Turkish economy, particularly in sectors such as waste management, water treatment, and emissions control.
• Strategic Sectors: Seven strategic sectors—automotive, iron and steel, construction, machinery, white goods, electronics, and agriculture—are identified as key areas for green growth. These sectors have varying levels of adoption of global best practices in environmental sustainability.
• Policy Instruments: The report evaluates a range of policy instruments, including regulatory actions, environmental taxes, pricing policies, and market-based instruments (MBIs), to promote green growth and innovation.

Key Information

Economic and Environmental Context

• Turkey's economy has shown rapid growth, but it has not yet decoupled from rising energy use.
• The government's 2023 vision includes making Turkey one of the world's ten largest economies and completing EU accession negotiations.
• Environmental policies are aligned with EU standards, particularly in waste, water, and environmental impact assessments (EIA).

Strategic Sectors

• Automotive: Already comparable with European producers, with significant growth potential in a green growth scenario.
• Iron and Steel: Modernized and cleaner than other emerging markets, with opportunities for further greening through domestic recycling.
• Cement: Lags behind EU standards, with compliance costs potentially prohibitive without large-scale investments.
• Machinery and White Goods: Benefited from significant FDI, showing potential for green growth.
• Agriculture: Offers opportunities for energy efficiency and water use improvements through regulatory and pricing measures.

Policy Recommendations

• Complementary Policies: To offset the negative impacts of environmental taxes on employment and income, complementary policies such as support for green jobs and innovation are essential.
• Public Sector Role: The public sector should play a leading role in recycling environmental tax revenues to support green initiatives.
• Labor Market Flexibility: Flexible labor markets are crucial for enabling the economy to adjust to environmental policies and for promoting the transition to less polluting industries.
• Innovation and Investment Climate: A supportive investment climate and innovation system are necessary to encourage green technologies and practices.
• Social Transfers: Targeted social transfers can help mitigate the distributional impact of environmental taxes on vulnerable households.

General Equilibrium Analysis

• A pilot general equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of environmental policies.
• The model highlights that environmental taxes can have significant welfare costs, especially in sectors with high pollution intensity.
• The introduction of higher water tariffs combined with best practice technologies can offset negative effects on agricultural output.
• Policies that transfer environmental tax revenues to support green jobs and innovation can yield substantial economic benefits, including increased GDP and employment.

Conclusion

The report concludes that green growth is not only compatible with traditional growth strategies but can also enhance them. It recommends a comprehensive approach that includes regulatory reforms, tax policies, and support for innovation and employment in green sectors. Turkey has the potential to achieve high-income status without a dramatic increase in its environmental footprint, provided that appropriate policies are implemented to promote resource efficiency and pollution abatement.

Annex and References

• The report includes annexes that describe the algebraic structure of the CGE model and its calibration for the period 2011–2030.
• It references various studies and organizations, including the World Bank, OECD, and FAO, to support its analysis and recommendations.