2024-03-24-世界银行-坦桑尼亚经济更新_第20期_在抓住机遇的同时克服人口挑战（英）_98页_14mb

Tanzania Economic Update Summary

Core Content

The Tanzania Economic Update (TEU) Issue 20, 2024, provides an in-depth analysis of the country's recent economic developments, macroeconomic outlook, and demographic challenges and opportunities. It highlights the need for policy interventions to address these issues and support sustainable growth.

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Recent Economic Developments

Economic Activity and Poverty Trends

• Tanzania's real GDP growth rose from 4.6% in 2022 to 5.2% in 2023.
• The services sector contributed the largest share to GDP growth in the first nine months of 2023, driven by financial and insurance, tourism, transportation, and accommodation.
• Agricultural output increased but at a slower pace due to floods and droughts.
• The industrial sector (mining, manufacturing, and construction) contributed about 30% each to the sector's expansion.

Monetary Policy and Inflation

• The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) implemented a monetary policy framework transition in 2024, shifting from monetary targeting to an interest-rate-based framework.
• Inflation fell from a five-year peak of 4.9% (y/y) at the beginning of 2023 to 3% in December, with food inflation slowing from nearly 10% to 2.3%.
• The headline inflation rate for 2023 was 3.8%, below the BoT's target of 5% for FY2023/24 and regional peers.

Fiscal and Debt Developments

• Public spending on goods and services declined, contributing to the overall recurrent spending reduction.
• Development spending (focused on megaprojects) increased to 7.9% of GDP.
• The debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 43.6% at the end of FY2021/22 to 40.9% at the end of FY2022/23.
• The fiscal deficit decreased from 4.6% of GDP to 3.0% during 5M-FY2023/24.

Balance-of-Payments Position

• The current-account deficit fell from US$5.3 billion (7.7% of GDP) in 11M-2022 to US$2.8 billion (3.9% of GDP) in 11M-2023.
• Merchandise trade deficit shrank due to moderating global commodity prices, while services trade surplus expanded.
• Foreign exchange reserves declined from US$5.2 billion (4.7 months of imports) at end-2022 to US$4.5 billion (4 months of imports) at end-November 2023.

Zanzibar Macroeconomic Assessment

• Zanzibar's economic performance is closely tied to the mainland.
• The special focus on demographic challenges and opportunities includes family planning (FP), female education, and women's agency.

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Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks

Global Conditions

• Global growth is expected to slow in 2024 due to monetary tightening and restrictive credit conditions.
• Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are projected to see firming economic activity in 2024, as domestic demand improves and international trade picks up.
• Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to accelerate to 3.8% in 2024 as inflationary pressures fade.

Outlook for Tanzania

• Annual GDP growth is forecast to rise to 5.6% in 2024, with an average of 6% over the medium term.
• Headline inflation is expected to fall below 4% over the medium term, supported by moderating commodity prices, planned agricultural investments, and the interest-rate-based framework.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline from 42% in 2022 to about 37% over the medium term.
• The current-account balance will improve, largely funded by concessional external borrowing and foreign direct investment (FDI).

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Special Focus: Demographic Challenges and Opportunities

Introduction

• Demographics play a crucial role in human capital development and economic growth.
• Tanzania is pre-dividend, showing improvement in life expectancy but lagging in fertility transition.

Demographic Transition

• Tanzania has made excellent progress in reducing infant and child mortality, but high fertility rates remain a challenge.
• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Tanzania is 4.8 (2022), nearly double the rate in Lower-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs).
• The TFR declined only 1.4 children over 30 years (1990–2020), indicating a slow fertility transition.

Proximate and Socioeconomic Determinants

• Early marriage and low contraceptive use are key proximate determinants of high fertility.
• Female education and women's agency are important socioeconomic factors that influence fertility rates.
• Contraceptive prevalence rate is below regional averages, contributing to unmet need for modern contraception (21%).

Implications of High Population Growth

• High population growth increases public service costs, particularly in education and healthcare.
• Population pyramids show that Tanzania has a younger population compared to Korea, indicating potential for a demographic dividend.
• Population projections under different fertility scenarios show significant differences in the number of children and costs of public services by 2061.

Key Policies and Strategies

• Accelerating the demographic transition is essential to unlock economic growth and poverty reduction.
• Family planning (FP) programs must be strengthened to reduce fertility rates.
• Investment in education and women's empowerment is critical to improve contraceptive use and enhance economic outcomes.

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Key Figures and Projections

• School-age population is projected to increase to 44.3 million (low fertility scenario) by 2061, compared to 65.5 million (high fertility scenario).
• Public education cost will rise from 3.3% of GDP to 4.1% under a high fertility scenario, while decreasing to 2.9% under a low fertility scenario.
• Cost of vaccinating children and adolescent girls against HPV is estimated to range between US$718 million (low fertility) and US$1.3 billion (high fertility) by 2061.
• Working-age population share is expected to continue growing through 2050, providing potential for labor market expansion.

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Conclusion

Tanzania faces demographic challenges that could impede economic development and poverty reduction. However, the country has made significant progress in reducing mortality and improving life expectancy, which are positive indicators. Accelerating the demographic transition through family planning, education, and women's empowerment is essential to harness the demographic dividend and achieve more inclusive and balanced growth. Policymakers must prioritize structural reforms, enhance institutional quality, and support private investment to sustain economic momentum and address vulnerabilities.