2000年-世界发展银行全球_Can_the_World_Cut_Poverty_in_Half__How_Policy_Reform_and_Effective_Aid_Can_Meet_International_Development_Goals_56页_2mb

Can the World Cut Poverty in Half?

Summary of Policy Research Working Paper WPS 2403

Core Content

This paper explores the feasibility of halving global poverty by 2015 through policy reform and effective aid. It argues that while current growth trends and policies may lead to a significant reduction in poverty, the distribution of poverty reduction across regions will be uneven. The authors emphasize the need for targeted aid and policy improvements to ensure that all major regions, especially Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA), contribute meaningfully to the global poverty reduction goal.

Main Findings

• Current Trends and Policies:
  If current growth trends and policies continue, global poverty will decline by about half by 2015. However, this reduction will be disproportionately concentrated in East and South Asia, while Sub-Saharan Africa will see only slight improvement and ECA may even experience an increase in poverty.

• Aid and Policy Reform:

  • More effective aid can significantly enhance poverty reduction, especially in regions with weak institutional environments.
  • Policy reform in developing countries is crucial for reducing poverty, as it lowers the marginal cost of poverty reduction and allows aid to be used more efficiently.
  • Donor agencies have a key role in reallocating aid to countries with higher poverty levels and better policy environments.

• Three Decision Problems:

  1. Developing country governments must reform policies and institutions to improve the environment for growth and poverty reduction.
  2. Donor agencies should allocate aid based on poverty efficiency, i.e., targeting countries with high poverty and good policy environments.
  3. OECD Finance Ministries must adjust aid budgets to match the marginal value that electorates place on poverty reduction.

• Poverty-Efficiency Model:
  The authors develop a model where the volume of aid is endogenous and depends on the poverty-efficiency of the recipient countries. This model shows that increasing aid efficiency can lead to greater poverty reduction with the same aid volume.

• Diminishing Returns to Aid:
  Aid has diminishing marginal returns to poverty reduction. Once aid exceeds about 10% of GDP, its effectiveness in reducing poverty drops significantly. This implies that increasing aid volumes alone is not sufficient to achieve major poverty reduction without policy reform.

• Population Bias in Aid Allocation:
  There is a systematic under-aiding of countries with large populations. This bias is acknowledged as a persistent feature of aid allocation and must be corrected to achieve poverty efficiency.

• Poverty Reduction Scenarios:

  • In a baseline scenario, poverty rates in Africa and ECA remain low or increase.
  • In a variant scenario, if Africa and ECA improve their policy environments to match South Asia, poverty rates could drop by nearly 50%.
  • Efficient aid allocation alone could double the projected poverty reduction in Africa.
  • Increased aid volume is only effective if policy and institutional quality are also improved.

Key Implications

1. Global Poverty Reduction is Possible:
   The international poverty reduction goal is attainable globally, but not in Africa and ECA unless there is major policy reform.

2. Partnership is Essential:
   A global partnership between developing countries and OECD nations is necessary. Developing countries must improve policies and institutions, while OECD governments must show concern for poverty and translate it into effective aid.

3. Aid Efficiency Matters:
   Poverty-efficient aid allocation is more important than simply increasing aid volumes. Donor agencies should focus on targeting aid to poor countries with good policy environments.

4. Dynamic Adjustments Needed:
   As policy reforms and aid efficiency improve, the marginal cost of poverty reduction decreases, requiring adjustments in aid volumes to maintain equilibrium.

5. Different Trajectories for Aid:
   Countries with poor policies will initially receive less aid, but as they improve, aid can be increased. Conversely, countries that have already reduced poverty may see reduced aid as they become more self-sufficient.

Conclusion

To achieve the goal of halving global poverty by 2015, a combination of policy reform, efficient aid allocation, and increased aid volumes is necessary. The World Bank and OECD must work in partnership with developing countries to ensure that aid is used effectively and that policy environments are improved. The paper provides a quantitative model to guide this process and highlights the importance of targeting aid and reforming policies in the most impoverished regions.