2021-12-02-牛津经济研究院-Travel_amp_Tourism_Rural_destinations_fare_better_as_consumer_preferences_shift_5页_578kb

Rural Travel Outpaces Urban Tourism: COVID-19 Structural Shifts

Summary

During the COVID-19 pandemic, rural destinations have fared better than cities, leading to a structural shift in travel patterns driven by consumer preferences. The recovery phase for both rural and urban tourism is underway, but trends from the pandemic may persist.

Key drivers of rural travel increase (2021 vs. 2019):

1. International travel restrictions: Reduced international travel pushed consumers toward domestic and rural options.
2. Substitution effects: Replaced outbound international travel with domestic rural stays.
3. Sentiment effects: Concerns about health risks and crowd density shifted travelers away from cities to quieter rural areas.

As a result, the share of domestic visits to rural destinations in the UK increased from 51% to 59% between 2019 and 2021. While both rural and urban tourism are expected to recover due to pent-up demand and rising vaccination rates, urban recovery may face longer delays due to the decline in business travel (especially MICE events) and heavy reliance on international arrivals. Rural destinations are likely to maintain higher market share in the long term due to persistent consumer preferences for less crowded settings.

Forward-looking outlook:

• Rural tourism: Expected to retain elevated demand shares due to ongoing consumer sentiment toward rural and domestic travel.
• Urban tourism, especially cities like London: Recovery for business events is projected to lag, with international MICE travel recovery potentially not returning until 2026 or later. However, hybrid models in events may catalyze a mixed market recovery.

Implications:

• The pandemic has underscored the increased resilience of rural tourism in times of global travel uncertainties.
• There are significant divergences between the recovery patterns for urban and rural destinations.
• Preference shifts away from cities present both risks and opportunities for urban centers and rural destinations alike.

Strategic Considerations:

• Tourism products and policies should address supply-side constraints in urban areas.
• The pandemic may have permanently altered consumer behavior with some possible shift toward rural preference.
• Enhanced strategies to promote rural areas are crucial to leverage the ongoing trend.