2026年5月首席经济学家展望报告_29页_2mb

Chief Economists' Outlook Summary - May 2026

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the global economic outlook as of May 2026, based on surveys and insights from chief economists across the public and private sectors. It highlights the impact of geopolitical and geoeconomic developments, particularly the Middle East conflict, on global growth, inflation, and market volatility. The report also explores the evolving role of AI in driving productivity and the varying regional effects of the ongoing disruptions.

Main Points

1. Global Economic Outlook

• Growth Deterioration: 89% of chief economists expect global growth to weaken over the next 12 months, with 21% anticipating a significantly weaker outlook.
• Inflationary Pressures: 94% of respondents expect global inflation to rise, primarily due to energy and food price increases. The IMF projects inflation to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026.
• Recession and Resilience: 58% of chief economists do not see a global recession as imminent, but there are limited expectations of increased economic resilience in the short term.
• Market Volatility: 79% of respondents expect increased volatility in private debt markets, and 74% in public debt markets. Stock market volatility is also expected to rise, though not to the levels seen during the 2025 tariff turmoil or the 2020 pandemic crash.

2. AI and Productivity Gains

• AI Adoption: Over 90% of chief economists expect AI adoption to increase in the next 12 months, with significant opportunities in digital sectors.
• Productivity Gains: The first wave of productivity benefits is expected in information technology and digital communications, with gains materializing within 6 months.
• Delayed Benefits: In most other industries, the median expected time for meaningful productivity gains from AI is increasing, indicating a more prolonged impact than previously anticipated.
• Education Sector: AI is expected to bring productivity gains in education slightly earlier than other sectors, due to its potential to personalize learning and streamline administrative tasks.
• Challenges: Legal, data, and infrastructure constraints are slowing AI adoption beyond early-stage firms, and broader productivity improvements may take years to materialize.

3. Disruption from the Middle East Conflict

• Supply Chain Disruptions: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted global supply chains, especially for energy and materials. Over 58% of chief economists identified energy and materials as the most disrupted industries.
• Price Surges: Energy prices are expected to rise significantly across most regions, with South-East Asia facing the highest increase (62%), followed by the US (71%), Europe (68%), and others.
• Food Price Impact: The fertilizer shortage caused by the conflict is expected to delay the impact on food prices, with significant increases anticipated in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and the US.
• Regional Variations: The conflict has led to substantial disruptions in the leisure and travel industry, with 65% of respondents identifying high or very high levels of disruption. The defense industry also faces significant disruption due to increased spending and technological competition.

4. Regional Economic Outlooks

• United States and India: Expected to maintain moderate to strong growth, supported by investment and consumption, though facing inflationary pressures.
• China: Outlook has improved, but the country is still dealing with intense competition and slim margins.
• Europe: Growth prospects have weakened due to energy shocks and stagflation risks.
• South-East Asia: Shows resilience but is vulnerable to energy and food import issues.
• Middle East and North Africa: Growth and employment are expected to sharply deteriorate.
• Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America: Outlooks remain steady, though infrastructure constraints and geopolitical risks limit attractiveness for multinational companies.

Key Implications

• Geopolitical Risks: The Middle East conflict has intensified uncertainty and volatility, with potential long-term effects on global supply chains and inflation.
• Multinational Strategies: Companies are reassessing their strategies, with the US, India, and South-East Asia seen as more attractive due to scale and flexibility.
• Policy and Business Priorities: There is a growing need for policy-makers and business leaders to address inflation, supply chain resilience, and the long-term integration of AI into economic activities.

Contributors and Disclaimer

• The report is published by the World Economic Forum and reflects the views of surveyed chief economists, not necessarily those of the Forum or its stakeholders.
• The findings are based on a survey conducted from 6 April to 17 April 2026, with data from previous reports (May 2023–May 2026) used for comparison.

Conclusion

The global economic outlook is increasingly pessimistic, with heightened volatility, inflationary pressures, and supply chain disruptions. While AI remains a key driver of optimism, its productivity benefits are expected to materialize more slowly than anticipated. The Middle East conflict has had a profound impact, particularly on energy and food markets, with regional disparities in growth and resilience. Policymakers and businesses must navigate these challenges with strategic foresight and adaptability.