2012年-世界发展银行全球_Agricultural_Potential_Rural_Roads_and_Farm_Competitiveness_in_South_Sudan_79页_2mb

Summary of Report No. 68399-SS: Agricultural Potential, Rural Roads, and Farm Competitiveness in South Sudan

Core Content

South Sudan has significant but underutilized agricultural potential, with over 70% of its land area suitable for crop production due to favorable climate and soil conditions. However, only 3.8% of the land is currently cultivated, and the country faces recurrent food insecurity. This report explores strategies to enhance agricultural production and competitiveness through improved rural infrastructure, particularly roads, and identifies the budgetary requirements for such investments.

Main Points

• Agricultural Potential:
  South Sudan's agricultural potential is vast, with more than 70% of the land area having a growing period (LGP) of over 180 days, suitable for crop production. Despite this, current cropland coverage is minimal, with only 2.5 million hectares under cultivation.

• Land Use and Cover:
  The majority of the land is covered by trees and shrubs (62.6%), with cropland, grass with crops, and trees with crops being the main agricultural land use types. Irrigated land is limited to 32,100 hectares, mainly in Upper Nile, and flood land for rice is about 6,000 hectares in Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

• Cropland Distribution:
  Cropland is concentrated in five states: Upper Nile (19.0%), Warrap (15.3%), Jonglei (14.3%), Western Equatoria (11.4%), and Central Equatoria (11.2%). These states account for 70% of national cropland and 56% of the national territory.

• Livelihood Zones:
  The Western Flood Plains livelihood zone has the highest cropland share (34.2% of national cropland). Other zones include areas with high and low production potential and population density, which influence the feasibility and impact of agricultural expansion.

• Agricultural Production:
  The current value of agricultural production in South Sudan was estimated at US$808 million in 2009, with 75% from the crop sector. The average value of household production is US$628, of which US$473 comes from crops. The per hectare value of production in South Sudan is US$299, significantly lower than in Uganda (US$665), Ethiopia (US$917), and Kenya (US$1,405).

• Road Infrastructure:
  Rural road networks are critical for enhancing agricultural productivity and competitiveness. The report highlights the need to prioritize road investments in high agricultural potential zones and outlines a pragmatic approach due to budget constraints and limited local construction capacity.

• Budget Requirements:
  Under a base scenario, the capital requirement for rural road investments in high potential areas is estimated at US$5 billion, which can be reduced to US$2 billion by focusing on lower quality roads and expanding coverage boundaries. This would help accelerate rural connectivity and reduce transport costs.

• Transport Costs and Food Prices:
  Reducing transport prices by half (from US$0.65 to US$0.32 per ton-km) could lower maize prices in Juba by 9%, and a 49% reduction could lead to a 30% drop in sorghum prices. These reductions are essential for improving food affordability and competitiveness with imports from Uganda and Sudan.

• Competitiveness and Policy:
  While improved rural connectivity is transformative, it alone is not sufficient to ensure competitiveness. Complementary investments in productivity, such as mechanization, adaptive agricultural research, and market-supportive regulations, are necessary. The report also emphasizes the importance of policy reforms to promote competition among transport providers and remove non-tariff barriers.

Key Information

• Land Use Overview:

  • Cropland: 3.8% (2.5 million ha)
  • Grass with crops: 0.5%
  • Trees with crops: 2.6%
  • Grassland: 14.9%
  • Tree land: 62.6%
  • Flood land: 14.7%
  • Water and rock: 0.7%
  • Urban: 0.1%

• Cropland Expansion Scenarios:

  • Modest expansion (4% to 10% of total land area): Could increase agricultural output value to US$2 billion.
  • With a 50% increase in per capita yields: Output value could reach US$2.8 billion.
  • With double per capita yields: Output value could reach US$3.7 billion, surpassing Uganda's current level.
  • With threefold productivity increase: Output value could reach US$5.5 billion.

• Road Investment Needs:

  • The report outlines the types and lengths of roads required in different states and livelihood zones.
  • A pragmatic approach to road construction is recommended, focusing on lower cost, lower quality roads and expanding coverage boundaries.
  • The report provides cost scenarios for road rehabilitation, construction, and maintenance, highlighting the need for efficient allocation of resources.

• Transport and Food Price Impact:

  • Reducing transport prices could significantly lower food prices in South Sudan, especially for maize and sorghum.
  • Improved transport infrastructure is crucial for connecting rural producers to urban markets and enhancing competitiveness with imports.

Conclusion

This report underscores the importance of addressing both short-term food security and long-term agricultural competitiveness in South Sudan. It calls for strategic investments in rural roads and complementary productivity measures to unlock the country's agricultural potential and ensure sustainable development. The findings aim to guide policymakers and planners in making informed decisions to support the growth of the agriculture sector and improve the livelihoods of the majority of the population who depend on it.