20250930-国泰期货-LLDPE_中期震荡行情_2页_539kb

报告摘要

Mid-term Trend: The LLDPE market exhibits a mid-term震荡行情 (range-bound trend), with a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), indicating no strong directional bias.
Demand Factors: LLDPE demand shows continuous improvement, driven by the agricultural film sector's increasing activity and seasonal inventory buildup for the peak season.
Supply Factors: Supply remains relatively stable, with minimal change in maintenance shutdowns from August to September, while potential easing of supply pressure in the East China region due to Zhenhai Refining and Chemicals' maintenance.
Inventory:社会库存 (social inventory) is low and continues to decrease, reducing overall market pressure.
Price Movement:
- Spot market prices experience small fluctuations of 10-50元/吨 (RMB per ton).
- Futures prices show slight upward movement but with limited impact.
- Trade adjustment and steady inventory reduction by merchants are key seller-side dynamics.
- Downstream demand is supported but limited to mandatory purchases, keeping成交平淡 (average trading).