2018年-世界发展银行全球_Tobacco_Taxation_and_Impact_of_Policy_Reforms___Trinidad_and_Tobago_88页_1mb

Summary of Tobacco Taxation and Impact of Policy Reforms in Trinidad and Tobago

Core Content

This report examines the impact of tobacco tax reforms in Trinidad and Tobago, focusing on how increasing excise taxes on cigarettes can reduce consumption, improve public health, and increase government revenue. It is part of a broader effort to align tobacco taxation policies with international best practices and to support the harmonization of tobacco taxes across the Caribbean region.

Main Points

Tobacco Use and Health Impact

• Prevalence: Over 33% of adult males and 9.4% of adult females use tobacco and related products in Trinidad and Tobago.
• Health Risks: Cigarette smoking is a leading preventable cause of disease and death, contributing to ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and cerebrovascular disease.
• Public Health Burden: Smoking increases the risk of coronary heart disease, blood pressure, and complications from diabetes. It also has a greater relative risk in individuals under 50 years of age.
• WHO Targets: To meet WHO-recommended targets for reducing smoking prevalence by 30% by 2030, stronger tobacco control measures are needed.

Current Taxation and Pricing

• Average Price: The average price per pack of 20 cigarettes is TT$28.66 (US$4.28), with little variation between filtered and unfiltered cigarettes.
• Tax Burden: The average excise tax burden in 2016 was 18.7% of the retail price, and the total tax burden (import, excise, and VAT) was 29.9%.
• Tax Revenue: In 2016, cigarette excise duties generated TT$202.91 million, which increased to TT$227.1 million in 2017 after a 15% tax increase.

Policy Scenarios and Results

Two scenarios were modeled to assess the impact of increasing excise taxes on tobacco:

Scenario 1 (50%, 100%, 100% increases in excise tax over 2018–2020)

• Tax Revenue:
  • 2018: US$71.1 million (0.37% of GDP)
  • 2019: US$107.9 million (0.58% of GDP)
  • 2020: US$175.8 million (0.91% of GDP)
• Consumption Reduction:
  • 2018: 4% decrease
  • 2019: 10% decrease
  • 2020: 14% decrease
• Tax Burden:
  • 2020: 58% of retail price

Scenario 2 (150%, 100%, 100% increases in excise tax over 2018–2020)

• Tax Revenue:
  • 2018: US$101 million (0.53% of GDP)
  • 2019: US$154 million (0.83% of GDP)
  • 2020: US$251 million (1.30% of GDP)
• Consumption Reduction:
  • 2018: 11.3% decrease
  • 2019: 13.1% decrease
  • 2020: 16% decrease
• Tax Burden:
  • 2020: 64% of retail price

Sensitivity Analysis

• The simulation shows that higher tax rates lead to greater reductions in consumption and increased tax revenues.
• The public health benefit (measured by consumption reduction) and revenue mobilization are positively impacted by increases in excise taxes, regardless of the elasticity assumptions.

Revenue and Public Health Benefits

• Revenue Potential: The tax increases would significantly boost government revenue, which could be used to fund public health initiatives and other priority programs.
• Health Outcomes: Tax increases are associated with lower cigarette consumption, which reduces the incidence of tobacco-related diseases and improves overall public health.
• International Norms: The current tax burden in Trinidad and Tobago is below the WHO-recommended 75%, suggesting room for further increases to achieve both health and fiscal objectives.

Key Information

Legal and Regulatory Framework

• The Tobacco Control Act of 2009 and Tobacco Control Regulation of 2013 have been implemented, with strict penalties for non-compliance.
• These measures include high fines and imprisonment for selling or manufacturing tobacco products without a license.

Economic Context

• Trinidad and Tobago's economy has experienced steady growth, with real GDP increasing from 2010 to 2016.
• Inflation and economic conditions are considered in the modeling of tax increases and their impact on affordability and consumption.

Recommendations

• Increase Specific Excise Taxes: To align with WHO and international standards.
• Index Taxes to Inflation: To maintain the real tax burden over time.
• Harmonize Taxes Across the Region: To reduce incentives for tax evasion and improve the effectiveness of tobacco control.
• Strengthen Tax Administration: To ensure compliance and maximize revenue collection.

Conclusion

• Tobacco taxation is a proven and cost-effective tool for reducing consumption and improving public health.
• Increasing excise taxes in Trinidad and Tobago could lead to substantial revenue gains and significant health benefits.
• The study underscores the importance of harmonizing tobacco tax policies across CARICOM and OECS to achieve broader regional health and fiscal goals.

References and Appendices

• The report draws on data from the World Bank, WHO, and IMF.
• It includes annexes with detailed macroeconomic indicators, simulation assumptions, and sensitivity analyses to support the findings.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 2.1–2.3: Show real GDP, unemployment, and inflation trends from 2010–2016.
• Figure 3.1–3.9: Present data on cigarette prices, market shares, and tax revenues.
• Table E-1 and E-2: Summarize the proposed tax policy measures and their impact on revenue, consumption, and tax burden over 2018–2020.