ATKearney-塑造制造业未来白皮书（英文）-2018.2-35页-2mb

Summary of A.T. Kearney Collaboration with the World Economic Forum (WEF)

Core Content

The Shaping the Future of Production initiative, supported by A.T. Kearney and the World Economic Forum (WEF), explores how global production systems will evolve by 2030 due to technological and economic changes. The initiative emphasizes the need for innovation, sustainability, and inclusivity in the future of production.

Main Objectives

• Understand and anticipate growth and disruptions from new technologies in production systems.
• Foster cooperation between policymakers and businesses to shape favorable policy frameworks.
• Build investment and public-private partnerships aligned with a collective vision for the future of production.
• Engage a wide range of stakeholders to develop capabilities and create agile supply networks.

Key Technologies

Five core technologies are identified as critical to the transformation of global production systems:

1. Internet of Things (IoT): Connects unconnected production assets, with over 85% still unconnected today. Expected to grow significantly by 2020.
2. Artificial Intelligence (AI): A global market of $8 billion, with only 12% currently used in manufacturing. Projected to grow to $32 billion by 2020.
3. Advanced Robotics: Handles 10% of production tasks today, expected to rise to 45% by 2030. Market is projected to grow from 250,000 units in 2015 to 400,000 by 2020.
4. Enterprise Wearables: Market is projected to grow from $700 million to $5 billion by 2020. These technologies improve operator productivity by 25%.
5. 3D Printing: Market projected to grow from $5 billion to $16 billion by 2020. Enables flexible and on-demand manufacturing.

Four Scenarios for 2030

1. Disrupted: Rapid technological advancements and a focus on sustainability boost economic activity and global production.
2. Deterred: Cyber threats limit the adoption of production technologies, but military investments may benefit commercial sectors.
3. Damaged: Protectionism and reduced international cooperation hinder economic growth and production.
4. Devolved: Sustainability efforts drive changes in production, with a focus on localized and micro factories.

Country Profiles and Readiness

• A framework is proposed to assess countries' readiness for the future of production, identifying archetypes such as Leapfroggers, Followers, Global Leaders, and At-risk Economies.
• Governments are encouraged to invest in innovation, education, and public-private partnerships to support the transformation of production systems.

Challenges and Opportunities

Opportunities:

• Developing a robust innovation ecosystem for production technologies.
• Building a competitive industrial base and leapfrogging competitors.
• Integrating SMEs into global supply chains.
• Creating favorable policy frameworks for investment and growth.

Challenges:

• Ensuring the workforce has the necessary skills for the future of production.
• Managing the impact on employment during the transition period.
• Addressing regional inequalities due to technological advancements.
• Creating a supportive environment for SMEs and developing economies.

2017 Plans

• A.T. Kearney will continue supporting WEF in exploring the impact of the 4th Industrial Revolution on production.
• The initiative will work with 26 countries to develop strategies and policies.
• A Steering Committee with diverse representation will guide the project, including policymakers, business leaders, and academic experts.

Conclusion

The initiative highlights the transformative potential of technology in reshaping production systems, the need for a comprehensive and inclusive approach, and the importance of global collaboration. It underscores the role of governments in orchestrating the future of production through innovation, education, and strategic partnerships.