2021-10-06-瑞士信贷集团-在2021年下半年至2022年上半年加速资本支出增长_46页_1mb

Summary of China Communication Infrastructure Sector Report (Credit Suisse, October 2021)

Overview

-Focus: China's communication infrastructure sector, with emphasis on 5G rollout, capital expenditure (capex), and digital infrastructure.
-Key Message: Despite regulatory headwinds and supply chain constraints, the sector is positioned for recovery in 2H21-1H22, driven by accelerated 5G deployment and hyperscaler demand.

Key Drivers

-5G Rollout: Co-build, co-share agreements (e.g., China Mobile/China Broadcasting Network) reduce capex but extend deployment cycles. 5G base stations (BTS) growth targets up to 2.7mn by 2023.
-Capex Acceleration: Telcos increased 5G spending; operators met annual budget targets. Hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alibaba boosted cloud investments, driving datacom growth.
-Regulatory Shifts: Policies on data centers (IDC) and critical information infrastructure (CII) introduced uncertainties, but fundamentals for long-term growth remain intact.

Telecom Sector

-Capex: China Mobile, Telecom, and Unicom's combined capex reached Rmb86bn in 1H21, with 5G investments delayed but expected to rebound. Capex guidance for 2021/22 is Rmb341/344bn, a slight dip YoY.
-Base Stations: 5G macro BTS net adds forecast at 630k/730k/550k for 2021/22/23E, reflecting a longer rollout cycle than 4G. 700MHz spectrum allocations drove demand.

Datacom Segment

-Capex Momentum: Domestic hyperscaler capex grew modestly YoY, while overseas hyperscalers saw strong growth (+40.7% YoY). China's internet companies (BAT) capex to grow 14% annually through 2023.
-Cloud Revenue: Overseas cloud revenue surged, with Google, Microsoft, and Amazon leading. China's cloud growth slowed due to regulations but is expected to accelerate post-2H21.
-IDC: Leading IDCs (GDS, VNET, CD) saw strong revenue growth YoY, buoyed by project completions. Valuations reflect headwinds, but upside from capex recovery is likely.

Supply Chain Analysis

-Positive Plays: ZTE benefitting from 5G share gains; Accelink improving chip self-sufficiency; Innolight leveraging 400G/200G demand. Defensives include Chindata.
-Risk Factors: Optical fiber and PCB sectors face pricing pressure; supply chain constraints for optical modules and semiconductors persist.

Valuation & Risks

-IDC Valuation: Market is priced for worst-case scenarios, with discounts vs. historical averages. DCF models suggest undervaluation for some players.
-Key Risks: 5G rollout delays, U.S.-China tensions, and competitive pressures in hyperscaler/IDC sectors.

Appendix

-Regulatory Updates: Detailed timeline of IDC policies, including state-owned cloud mandates and CII regulations show ongoing scrutiny.
-DCF Analysis: Scenario-based valuation for leading companies indicates potential upside from normalized 2022-23 growth.

Conclusion

-Opportunities: Supply chain beneficiaries (e.g., ZTE), datacom infrastructure, and defensive players (e.g., Chindata) are favored. Despite near-term headwinds, long-term demand drivers (5G, cloud, digitalization) remain strong.