2025-06-11-花旗集团-全球金属与矿业_中国基础设施承包商订单吸纳量（4个季度滚动平均值_同比下降7_）及对2025财年钢铁需求的影响_9页_282kb

Citi Research Summary: Infrastructure Order Intake and Steel Demand in China

• Order Intake Status: 4-quarter trailing order intake from Chinese infrastructure contractors is flat y/y at a multi-year low (-7% y/y since 2Q'15). This reflects deceleration over the last 12 quarters, though growth is still positive.

• Lag to Demand: Typically, order intake leads steel demand by 5-6 quarters (12-18 months). In a modestly inflationary environment, ~2-4% y/y order growth is needed to stabilize steel demand from infrastructure.

• Demand Projections: Steel demand from infrastructure is expected to be flat in FY'24 due to recent stabilization in construction inputs, but contraction in FY'25 is anticipated due to weak order intake (-67% y/y impact). Positive sentiment for strong late-2H'25 order intake could support iron ore and steel prices.

• Overall Implications: Contraction in FY'25 steel demand from infrastructure, compounded by property demand weakness, highlights risks in the sector; however, late-year order signals may provide upside.