2014年-世界发展银行全球_Financial_Sector_Assessment_Program_-_Albania___Public_Debt_Management_29页_1mb

报告摘要

Albania Public Debt Management Technical Note Summary

I. Executive Summary

Albania's public debt has reached over ALL 872 billion, approximately 62% of GDP, as of end-September 2013. This debt is composed of 57% domestic and 43% external debt. Domestic debt accounts for 36% of GDP, while external debt accounts for 26% of GDP. The high level of public debt poses significant challenges, especially due to the risk of rollover and the potential impact on banking stability. The domestic debt is heavily concentrated in short-term instruments (65% will mature within 12 months), increasing the vulnerability of the domestic market. The narrow investor base, dominated by commercial banks, further exacerbates these risks. The upcoming assessments of European parent banks by the ECB could increase pressure on foreign-owned banks, which are major investors in Albania's debt.

The Government Debt Management Directorate (GDPDM) was established in 2008 as a designated unit within the Ministry of Finance. It has been organized with separate front-, middle-, and back-office functions and reports directly to the Deputy Minister. However, austerity measures are expected to reduce staff by 50% and merge the GDPDM with the General Treasury Directorate, potentially reverting to the previous structure. This change could undermine the effectiveness of public debt management unless the necessary capacity is retained.

Improvements in the primary market are needed to enhance price discovery, which would support the development of the secondary market. Limiting non-competitive bids from individual investors and encouraging commercial banks to act as intermediaries are recommended. Additionally, increasing the frequency of certain maturities and improving cash flow projections are suggested to enhance the efficiency of debt management.

II. Government Debt Management

A. Institutional Arrangements for Public Debt Management

The General Directorate of Public Debt Management (GDPDM) has been operating as a separate unit under the Ministry of Finance since 2008.
The GDPDM is organized into three directorates: Borrowing (front office), Strategy and Risk (middle office), and Registration and Debt Service (back office).
It is responsible for managing both domestic and external debt, issuing loan guarantees, and on-lending funds.

B. Internal Organization of Public Debt Management

The GDPDM has 22 staff members, with low turnover.
Job descriptions are updated to reflect changes in responsibilities.
The Borrowing Directorate handles domestic and external debt issuance.
The Strategy and Risk Directorate monitors risks and compliance and prepares the medium-term debt management strategy.
The Registration and Debt Service Directorate records debt and arranges payments.

C. Integration of Public Debt Management with the Treasury

The internal organization of the debt management function is expected to remain largely intact.
The front office will not be divided into domestic and external sub-units.
The integration of debt and cash management functions is recommended to improve efficiency.
Cash management involves managing short-term government cash flows and balances, including foreign currency transactions.

D. Risk Profile of Government Debt

Albania's public debt is among the highest in the region, reaching 62% of GDP.
Domestic debt constitutes 57% of the total debt stock and 35.5% of GDP.
External debt is 43% of the total debt stock and 26% of GDP.
The debt is mainly in short-term instruments (65% maturing within 12 months), increasing rollover risk.
Interest rate risk is significant, with an average term to maturity (ATR) of 0.87 years.
Refinancing risk is high, with 62.6% of domestic debt maturing within one year.

III. Key Recommendations

Recommendation	Time Horizon	Level of Difficulty	Implementing Institution
Ensure sufficient institutional arrangements, internal organization, and staff resources for public debt management	Short Term	High	Ministry of Finance
Upgrade to new version of DMFAS for integrated debt management	Short Term	Medium	GDPDM
Develop the cash forecasting function within the GDT	Long Term	High	GDT
Rough tune cash flows during the planning stage to reduce concentration	Medium Term	Medium	GDT
Gradually change T-Bill issuance to better reflect cash flow patterns	Long Term	Medium	GDT, GDPDM
Use up to date macro framework and fiscal table for debt management strategy	Short Term	Medium	GDT, GDPDM, GDB
Expand debt portfolio targets and express them as a range	Short Term	Medium	GDPDM
Explicitly present the Annual Borrowing Plan in the debt management strategy document	Short Term	Low	GDPDM
Increase the cash buffer to meet unexpected expenditure	Medium Term	Medium	GDY
Continue to lengthen maturity of domestic debt to reduce rollover risk	Ongoing	High	GDPDM
Allow auction participants to submit multiple bids	Short Term	Low	GDPDM, BOA
Limit the number of dealers accepting retail bids to five	Medium Term/Long Term	Medium	GDPDM, BOA
Separate the BoA's participation in T-Bill auctions from other bidders	Short Term	Low	BOA
Close primary auctions within a reasonable time (e.g., two hours)	Medium Term	Medium	GDPDM, BOA
Increase frequency of 5 and 7-year T-bond auctions	Short Term	Low	GDPDM
Improve price transparency in the secondary market	Short Term	Medium	AFSA
Establish an ANNA numbering agent in Albania	Medium Term	Medium	BOA
Introduce a code of conduct for licensed brokerage companies and banks	Medium Term	Medium	AFSA
Develop valuation principles and a daily yield curve	Medium Term	High	BOA, AFSA
Introduce a Central Securities Depository in the BoA	Short Term	High	BOA

IV. Key Issues and Observations

High public debt: The debt-to-GDP ratio is among the highest in the region, creating significant challenges for debt management.
Concentration of debt: A large share of domestic debt is short-term, increasing rollover risk.
Narrow investor base: Commercial banks dominate the investor base, limiting diversification and price discovery.
Cash management challenges: The lack of a clear system for expenditure commitments leads to cash rationing and affects debt management.
Need for system upgrades: The current debt management systems are outdated and require modernization to improve efficiency and data accuracy.
Market development: Enhancing the secondary market liquidity and price transparency is essential for long-term debt management effectiveness.
Risk management: A robust risk monitoring framework is necessary to manage both domestic and external debt risks effectively.