2025-05-06-Jefferies-美国国际集团（AIG）_2025年第一季度要点有得有失_但承保利润率和增长势头良好；2026_27年每股收益不变_14页_1mb

AIG Equity Research Summary

Rating and Price Target

Jefferies rates AIG as "Buy" with a $95 price target, reflecting a 16% potential return from the current price. The 2025 EPS estimate is lowered to $6.40 due to a slight revision in business volume and a slight increase in underlying loss ratios, while 2026 and 2027 EPS remain unchanged at $8.15 and $9.40, respectively.

Financial Estimates

Pricing moderated in North America Commercial due to weaker property rates, but casualty rates remain firm. EPS for 2025 is projected at $6.40, lower by 2% from the prior estimate, with 6% NPW growth expected for NA Commercial through the year, flattening to 2026. International Commercial models 6% NPW growth in 2025. Underwriting margins are expected to expand moderately, driven by operational scale and cost savings.

Business Segments

NA Commercial: Models flat underlying loss ratios at 61.7% for 2025, with slight deterioration expected in 2026. International Commercial: Sees modest AYLR deterioration due to price moderation amid stiff competition. Global Personal: Reports high combined ratios, but expects improvement in underwriting and lower catastrophe losses, alongside growth in Accident & Health insurance.

Risks and Opportunities

Key risks include physical effects of climate change, increasing catastrophic losses, and data security vulnerabilities due to handling of PII. Opportunities lie in strong execution by Lexington, leading to favorable new business and retention; however, reserve strengthening and ER initiatives noted. CEO has addressed margin impacts from climate goals without providing detailed data.

Valuation

Based on a target multiple of 1.4x 2025E book value per share excluding AOCI ($75.49), with a buyback program supporting capital return. Downside risks include continued reserve strengthening and worsening catastrophe losses, but upside from faster EPS growth and NII benefits post-separation.

• Price Target: $95 (+14% potential return)
• Key metrics: Op ROE target of 10% for 2025.