2025-06-10-Jefferies-美国5月旅游流量_出境至欧洲_法国表现强劲_入境疲软_12页_291kb

US May Tourist Flows Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of US inbound and outbound tourist flows for May 2025, highlighting the performance trends compared to April 2025 and the broader implications for travel-related companies such as Accor, IAG, and Lufthansa.

Main Points

Inbound Flows to the US

• Overall Decline: US inbound tourist flows declined by -5.3% in May 2025 compared to April 2025, following a +2.9% increase in April.
• Regional Declines: All regions experienced a decline in inbound flows.
  • Europe: Inbound flows dropped by -2.5% in May, compared to +8.4% in April (which was influenced by Easter).
  • UK to the US: Inbound flows declined by -3%.
  • Germany to the US: Inbound flows declined by -10%.
• Impact on Airlines: Lufthansa and IAG both saw negative impacts from the decline in inbound flows. For IAG, a 1% decline in North American FY RASK (Revenue per Available Seat Kilometer) is estimated to result in a 2% decline in group EBIT.

Outbound Flows from the US

• Overall Growth: US outbound tourist flows grew by +1.7% in May, following a +6.2% increase in April.
• Europe: US to Europe flows remained strong, growing by +6.1% in May.
• France: US to France flows continued to show robust growth at +7.2% in May, despite challenging comparisons, with a two-year growth stack reaching 24%.
• Accor Benefit: Accor, which derives 50% of its sales from US inflows to Europe, is a key beneficiary of the continued strong outbound flows to the region. This is expected to support European RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room).

Key Markets

• Asia and Oceania: These regions saw steady growth in outbound flows.
• Top Performing Countries: US outbound flows to Japan, China, Germany, Italy, and France were strong, with notable growth in France.

Key Information

• Data Sources: Information is sourced from ITA (International Trade Administration) and Jefferies.
• Analyst Views:
  • Jeff View: The decline in inbound flows is a concern for IAG and Lufthansa, particularly due to the transatlantic route being a high-margin segment. Conversely, Accor is benefiting from the sustained US outbound flows to Europe.
• Valuation and Risk Factors:
  • Accor SA: Valued using a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) approach. Risks include asset sales challenges, RevPAR deceleration, net system size growth slowdown, and global GDP growth deceleration.
  • IAG: Valuation based on a target multiple of 3.2x EV/EBITDA. Risks include UK and Spanish macroeconomic conditions, long-haul capacity weakening, fleet delivery delays, and reversed migration flows from Latin America to Spain.
  • Lufthansa: Valued using a multiples approach. Risks include German macroeconomic conditions, fleet delivery delays, and a reversal of MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) business tailwinds.

Investment Recommendations

• Accor SA (AC FP): Buy rating with a price target of €46.23.
• IAG (IAG LN): Buy rating with a price target of £3.38.
• Lufthansa (LHA GR): Hold rating with a price target of €7.29.

Summary of Rating and Price Target History

Rating	Count	Percent
BUY	2107	60.49%
HOLD	1225	35.17%
UNDERPERFORM	151	4.34%

Important Disclosures

• Conflicts of Interest: Jefferies may have a conflict of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the report.
• Non-US Analysts: Some analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to certain restrictions.
• Investment Risks: The report does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors and is not a guarantee of future performance. Investors should consider it as one of many factors in their decision-making process.
• Regulatory Compliance: The report is subject to various regulations and is distributed in compliance with the applicable legal frameworks in different jurisdictions.

Conclusion

The US inbound tourist flows declined in May 2025, with notable drops from the UK and Germany, affecting airlines like IAG and Lufthansa. However, outbound flows from the US remained strong, particularly to Europe and France, benefiting companies like Accor. The report highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and operational risks for these travel-related firms.