2026-01-28-莱坊-Hong_Kong_Market_Report_2025_Q4_10页_1mb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Hong Kong Market Report Q4 2025 Jan 2026 This report analyses the performance of Hong Kong's office, residential and retail property markets knightfrank.com.hk/research Finance sector and PRC-related demand drive solid take-up in premium office spaces in Central, while existing vacant space and future supply still hinder overall rental growth # Q4 2025 Office Highlights Total Grade-A Office Vacancy 15.6% Average Unit Rent (Net sq ft) HK$49.5 Quarterly Take-up (Net sq ft) +880,125 Table 1: Q4 2025 Major Leasing Transactions District Property Tenant Area (Net sq ft) Central Two International Financial Centre QRT 137,306 Admiralty Two Pacific Place Futu Securities 38,169 North Point Foyer Agba Group 18,677 Cheung Sha Wan 83 King Lam Street Tower A GE Medical Systems 17,718 Kowloon Bay One Kowloon Aggressive Construction 17,250 West Kowloon International Gateway Centre Cooperatieve Rabobank 15,000 Source: Knight Frank Research # Market Highlights International Gateway Centre (IGC), located in Kowloon Station, was completed in December 2025, providing around 1,900,000 sq ft (net) of space and will be ready for handover condition in Q1 2026. Quant trader QRT has committed 6 floors at Two IFC, around 140,000 sq ft which will be vacant following UBS relocation, becoming one of the standout expansion commitments in 2025. Diverging performance between submarkets as well as building grades and specifications. Fig 1: Office Vacancy Rate # HONG KONG ISLAND The market continued to exhibit a clear bifurcation between submarkets through the end of 2025. Leasing momentum in premium Grade-A buildings picked up, with premium offices in Central rents rising $3\%$ YoY in 2025 as a whole, suggesting that certain buildings may have reached their bottom. Demand for premium buildings in Central remained primarily driven by financial institutions pursuing upgrades and expansions, alongside in-house expansions of law firms, reinforcing the district's resilience and sustained appeal to top-tier occupiers. On the other hand, an substantial influx of supply scheduled for 2026 and secondary vacancies weigh on the performance of traditional buildings in Central and other submarkets. Notably, Traditional Central, Causeway Bay and Quarry Bay were underperformed, with rents falling $7.1\%$ , $8.1\%$ and $8.6\%$ YoY respectively in 2025. Landlords remain flexible regarding leasing agreements, offering not just rental adjustments but various non-financial incentives. This dynamic has continued to favour tenants in lease negotiations, tenants are increasingly seeking the relaxation of restrictive clauses, such as removing sales and redevelopment rights amid the increasing sales activity in the office sector. Leasing activity in Kowloon softened notably in Q4, particularly in December due to the holiday season and corporate decision-making delays. Overall relocation appetite remained muted, with transaction volumes largely sustained by lease renewals. Tsim Sha Tsui outperformed the broader Kowloon market, with rental decline narrowed to $0.5\%$ YoY compared to $4.0\%$ for overall Kowloon in 2025. Demand was mainly driven by banking & finance and insurance sectors, generating a higher volume of new lease transactions involving smaller floor plates for project offices and client-facing spaces. Following the completion of IGC in December, including IGC, the vacancy rate in Tsim Sha Tsui is $21\%$ ; excluding IGC, the vacancy rate stands at $7.5\%$ . As no major new supply is expected in the near term, the market is likely to gradually absorb the existing vacancies. More occupiers are cautiously resuming relocation studies, adopting a conservative strategy that prioritises cost efficiency. They continue to focus on securing competitive rents, minimising capital expenditure on fit-out and relocation costs, and maximising space utilisation. Increasingly, tenants are showing a preference for fitted or build-to-suit premises. Table 2:Prime Office Market Indicators (Dec 2025) District Net effective rent Change Vacancy HK$ psf / mth QoQ % YoY % Q419 % Q425 % Premium Central 105.8 2.9 3.0 - - Traditional Central 77.2 1.2 -7.1 - - Overall Central 88.1 2.0 -2.7 3.4 11.6 Admiralty 55.5 0.3 -4.8 5.6 6.2 Sheung Wan 48.4 0.0 -4.5 4.1 13.5 Wan Chai 48.5 -0.3 -1.6 5.0 11.2 Causeway Bay 47.5 -0.8 -8.1 4.1 12.1 North Point 26.8 -6.0 -12.0 4.2 17.0 Quarry Bay 37.8 -0.1 -8.6 0.5 12.3 Tsim Sha Tsui 51.8 1.2 -0.5 4.5 21.0 Cheung Sha Wan 26.2 1.3 -5.1 1.1 17.6 Hung Hom 35.5 0.0 -1.1 5.7 12.1 Kowloon East 24.6 0.3 -7.3 13.1 19.8 Mong Kok / Yau Ma Tei 42.1 0.0 -12.4 - - Source: Knight Frank Research Note: Rents are subject to revision. # QUARTERLY INSIGHT The office market closed the year with selective recovery across submarkets, reflecting a clear divergence – robust demand for premium, well-located assets in Premier Central, while conventional buildings and non-core areas continue to face challenging conditions. Net take-up remained positive, supported by selective expansions from financial institutions in Central. In Kowloon, leasing activity was supported by the insurance and broader financial sectors. Looking forward to 2026, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. Core districts are expected to remain the primary beneficiaries of upgrade-driven relocations, while non-core areas will continue to navigate heightened competition from new developments and existing vacancies. Consolidation trends are expected to push vacancy rates higher in certain locations, requiring landlords to adopt a proactive and flexible approach. With rent differentials across districts narrowing and high-quality supply increasing, tenant-favourable conditions are likely to persist, enabling occupiers to secure competitive terms in prime, high-specification buildings. Fig 2: Quarterly Take-up by Sectors - Hong Kong Island # Sector Banking and Finance Professional and business services Co-working Public Sector Insurance Medical Import/export, wholesale and retail trades Fig 3: Quarterly Take-up by Sectors - Kowloon Net take-up New Supply # Sector Import/export, wholesale and retail trades Banking and Finance Professional and Business Services Others Construction TMT Insurance Source: Knight Frank Research Fig 4: Net Take-up & Completion (Net million sq ft) Source: Knight Frank Research Table 3 : Future Supply Y2026 District Development Area (Net sq ft) Developer Wan Chai 199-203 Hennessy Road 83,637 Tung Wah Group of Hospitals Sheung Wan 212-232 Des Voeux Road Central 135,000 Tai Hung Fai Hung Hom Conic Investment Building 385,718 Cheung Kong Central Central Crossing 135,102 Wing Tai / CSI Kwun Tong Crystal Tower 158,715 Crystal Group Causeway Bay Lee Garden Eight 697,500 Hysan / Chinachem Sai Wan 92-103 Connaught Road West 232,918 Tai Hung Fai Source: Knight Frank Research # - Robust transaction growth amid price sensitivity and rising inventory pressure Hong Kong's residential market entered a phase of recovery in 2025. All-year transaction volume reached 62,832, up $18.3\%$ YoY, returning to 2020's level. Primary activity remained strong, with transactions rising $21.5\%$ YoY, while the secondary market also recorded growth of $16.9\%$ YoY. The primary market accounted for $33\%$ of total sales, above the average $27\%$ in the past 5 years. On the other hand, private residential price index recorded a year-to-date gain of $2.8\%$ in November, back to September 2016's level. In the first-hand market, eight projects were launched during the quarter, providing 2,786 units. Kowloon led new supply of 1,693 units, largely in Kai Tak and Yau Tong. Notable sell-through performances underscored the strong demand for competitively priced projects, particularly at Austin Bohemian in Jordan (100% sell-through, 63 units sold) and Spring Garden in Wan Chai (98%, 86 units sold). The luxury segment sustained momentum in Q4, with 81 transactions above HK$78 million (US$10 million), a $45\%$ QoQ increase. A key highlight was the sale of a 9,455 sq ft house at Mount Nicholson, transacted for HK\)1.04 billion, or HK$109,889 per sq ft. The market further saw rising participations from foreign buyers, complementing the continued presence of Mainland Chinese buyers. The leasing market continued to strengthen, with rents rising $0.2\%$ MoM in November and $4.3\%$ YTD, supported by steady demand from professionals and students. Leasing activity in December remained concentrated in Mid-Levels and West Kowloon. On the development front, four land parcels were sold in 2025 and one in January 2026, predominantly comprising small to medium-sized plots, each expected to yield fewer than 1,500 units. These sites offer developers advantages, including lower upfront capital requirements and shorter development cycles. The upcoming Q1 land sale programme follows a similar pattern, with an emphasis on urban locations and mid-scale sites that align with developers' current risk appetite. Fig 5. Luxury Residential Rents and Prices While inventory remains a concern, pressure has eased compared with previous years. As of December, unsold units stood at approximately 11,250, a reduction of about 6,280 units from 17,530 in June 2025. Developers are adopting a more strategic approach amid improving market sentiment and homebuying activity, launching projects at market-acceptable pricing and selectively replenishing their land banks. This measured strategy is helping restore confidence and support a gradual rebalancing of the market. Fig 6. Mass Residential Rents and Prices # 2026 Forecast - Residential Sector Mass Residential Prices +5% to +8% Mass Residential Rents +3% to +5% Luxury Residential Prices +3% to +5% Luxury Residential Rents +3% to +5% Table 4 : Selected Residential Sales Transactions (Dec 2025) District Building Tower / Floor / Unit Saleable Area (sq ft) Price (HK$ million) Price (HK$ per sq ft) Stanley One Stanley House 18 5,567 362.5 65,116 Stanley One Stanley House 10 5,301 322.7 60,875 The Peak Mount Nicholson Phase 1, House 6 9,455 1,039 109,889 The Peak 15 Shouson Unit 15 4,831 289.86 60,000 West Kowloon The Cullinan Zone 1 Sun Sky 71/F, Flat C 1,037 46 44,359 Source: Knight Frank Research Note: All transactions are subject to confirmation. Table 5 : Selected Residential Lease Transactions (Dec 2025) District Building Tower / Floor / Unit Lettable Area (sq ft) Monthly Rent (HK$) Monthly Rent (HK$ per sq ft) Central One Central Place Upper Floor, Flat B 667 61,000 91 West Kowloon The Arch Tower 1A, Lower Floor, Flat C 932 77,000 83 West Kowloon The Cullinan Zone 1, Lower Floor, Flat A 1,530 128,800 84 Mid-Levels East Harmony Lower Floor, Flat A 2,094 233,000 111 Mid-Levels Central Dynasty Court Tower 1, Lower Floor, Flat A 2,153 150,000 70 Source: Knight Frank Research Note: All transactions are subject to confirmation. Table 6 : First Hand Sales - Launched Projects (Q4 2025) First Sale Date Development District No. of Units Average Price per sq ft (HK$) Incentives (Highest discount rate) 10 Dec 25 Double Coast III Kai Tak 361 19,980 12% 23 Nov 25 Soyo Square Cheung Sha Wan 95 17,965 12% 20 Nov 25 Austin Bohemian Jordan 63 22,733 20% 17 Nov 25 One Park Place Yau Tong 748 15,405 15% 2 Nov 25 Spring Garden Wan Chai 88 32,929 11% 21 Oct 25 Grand Mayfair III Yuen Long 680 15,249 16% 14 Oct 25 Phase 2 of Cullinan Sky Kai Tak 584 34,875 10% 8 Oct 25 Woodis Wan Chai 167 25,874 8% Source: Knight Frank Research / Market Source Table 7: Residential Land Sales Results in 2025-2026 Tender Award Date Lot No. & Location User Site Area (sq ft) Max GFA (sq ft) Premium (HK$ millions) Accommodation Value (HK$ millions) Tender Awarded *Estimated No. of Units 27 Jan 25 STTL 651, Mei Tin Road, Tai Wai Resi 38,750 193,752 606 3,128 Sun Hung Kai 484 19 Feb 25 TCTL 55, Area 106B, Tung Chung Resi 114,615 401,153 602 1,501 Sun Hung Kai 1,003 13 Aug 25 TMTL 569, Hoi Chu Road, Tuen Mun Resi 47,017 282,103 1,089 3,860 Sino Land 705 18 Nov 25 TWTL 441, Junction of Wing Shun Street & Texaco Road, Tsuen Wan Resi 70,127 434,790 2,475 5,692 Chinachem 1,087 7 Jan 26 NKIL 6674, Choi Hing Road, Jordan Valley, Kowloon Resi 41,226 371,035 1,610 4,339 Sino Land 928 Source: Lands Department / Market Source / Knight Frank Research *Estimated number of residential units is derived by dividing the maximum GFA by an assumed average unit size of 400 sq ft Table 8 : Land Sale Programme for Janaury to March 2026 Government Land Sale Lot No. Location User Site Area (sq ft) Max GFA (sq ft) Estimated No. of Units NKIL 6675 Choi Ha Road, Ngau Tau Kok, Kowloon Residential 33,713 284,452 420 SIL 860 Shau Kei Wan Main Street East, Hong Kong Residential 14,521 130,686 200 Other Residential Land Sales Name Estimated No. of Units MTR Corporation's Kam Sheung Road Station (Phase 2) project 1,290 URA Kai Tak Road/Sa Po Road development project 810 Private development and redevelopment projects, two projects are expected to complete the lease modification procedures 190 Total 2,960 Source: Market Source / Knight Frank Research Positive retail sales alongside stable F&B demand and ongoing prime street repositioning Hong Kong's retail market is showing early signs of stabilisation. From January to November, total retail sales reached approximately HK$345 billion, a 0.4% YoY increase. Monthly sales returned to positive growth from May onwards, ending a 14-month period of contraction and suggesting a tentative stabilisation of consumer spending. In 2025, the sector continued to come under competitive pressure from cross-border consumption and online sales. E-commerce penetration in Hong Kong has risen sharply, with online sales jumping from $6.3\%$ (or HK$20 billion) of total retail in 2020 to \(9.5\%$ (or HK\)32.6 billion) in the first eleven months of 2025. On the other hand, credit card spending by Hong Kong residents also illustrated the shift of spending behaviour. Although total credit card transaction value almost doubled from HK\)591 billion in 2020 to HK$1,023 billion in 2024, the share of domestic spending fell from $87.3\%$ in 2020 to $68.2\%$ in 2024. Overseas spending increased from $12.7\%$ to $31.8\%$ over the same period, underscoring the ongoing leakage of consumer spending outside the local retail market. Same Day Visitors (No.) Latest Tourism Statistics - Chinese Mainland Visitors Nov 2025 1,920,975 -46.5% Jan 2019 3,439,236 Source: Knight Frank Research / Tourism Board Fig 7: Retail Rents and Sales # Retail rental indices: RVD Private Retail Rental Index KF Non-Core Shopping Centre Rental Index KF Core Shopping Centre Rental Index KF Prime Street Shop Rental Index # Retail sales value by outlet type: Luxury Goods Medicines & Cosmetics Clothing, Footwear & Allied Products Other Categories Source: Knight Frank Research / Rating and Valuation Department / Census and Statistics Department Fig 8: Total Value of Credit Card Transactions: Overseas vs Hong Kong Spending Table 9: Key Retail Lettings in Q4 District Property Floor Monthly Rental (HK$) Area (sq ft) Rental (HK$ per sq ft) Tenant Causeway Bay 58 Russell Street & 73-75 Percival Street Multiple Floors $1,200,000 7,300 $164 Longbridge Securities Causeway Bay 5-19 Jardine's Bazaar (Capitol Centre) G/F-4/F $4,000,000 50,000 $80 HSBC Central 12 Pedder Street (Pedder Building) Ground Floor Shop $1,000,000 5,000 $200 Lactose Central 35 Queen's Road Central G/F-3/F $1,500,000 9,373 $160 OCBC Bank Causeway Bay 22-36 Paterson Street Ground Floor Shop 32 $200,000 800 $250 Insta360 Source: Knight Frank Research / Market Source Beyond domestic factors, visitors are contributing less to the retail market than in the past. Overall overnight visitor per-capita spending in Q3 2025 was HK$5,299, 11.8% lower than pre-COVID level in 2019. Notably, Mainland Chinese overnight visitors per-capita spending stood at HK$4,857 in Q3 2025, a 21.9% decline from Q1 2019's level. Meanwhile, visitor volumes continue to recover. Total visitors from all markets reached 12.8 million in Q3 2025, up 12.2% YoY. Among them, Mainland Chinese visitors accounted for 10.2 million, also recording a 12.1% YoY increase. Overall, while visitor arrivals are improving, per-capita spending remains subdued, limiting the uplift to the retail sector. Slower-than-expected domestic and visitor spending recovery continue to reshape Hong Kong's retail landscape. On the high-street level, structural shift in consumption pattern and substantial rental corrections have encouraged a more diversified tenant mix beyond traditional retail. Financial institutions and banks have been taking up prominent retail spaces – Key Q4 transactions include Longbridge Securities leasing 7,300 sq ft in Causeway Bay, HSBC securing approximately 50,000 sq ft at Capitol Centre, and OCBC Bank leasing 9,373 sq ft at 35 Queen's Road Central. To secure occupancy in the face of conservative expansion by general retailers, landlords may place greater emphasis on F&B tenants, which typically demonstrate greater resilience to e commerce competition. The F&B sector remained relatively resilient, averaging at HK$27.3 billion between 2023 - Q3 2025, slightly down $5\%$ from the 2017-2019 average of HK$28.7 billion. Visitor inflows also supported demand for local-style cha chaan tengs and traditional bing suts, which remain popular among tourists seeking authentic dining experiences. On the flip side, F&B operators typically command lower rental levels than traditional retailers. At the same time, the sector is facing intensifying local and regional competition, alongside rising labour and food costs, which continues to compress operating margins. As a result, landlords may need to adopt more pragmatic rental expectations when incorporating F&B tenants into their portfolios, balancing occupancy stability against income optimisation. Looking ahead, a more diversified tenant mix and gradual consumption recovery are expected to support rental growth of $5\% - 10\%$ for prime street shops. This outlook is underpinned by strong street visibility, resilient mainland visitor demand, and limited new supply. # We like questions. If you've got one about our research, or would like some property advice, we'd love to hear from you. # Research & Consultancy # Martin Wong Senior Director Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China +852 2846 7184 martin.wong@hk.knightfrank.com # Keith Chan Economist Research & Consultancy, Greater China +852 2846 9514 keithch.chan@hk.knightfrank.com # Commercial Markets # Paul Hart (E-127564) Managing Director, Greater China, Head of Commercial +852 2846 9537 paul.hart@hk.knightfrank.com # Capital Markets Antonio Wu (E-053542) Head of Capital Markets, Greater China +852 2846 4998 antonio.wu@hk.knightfrank.com # Office Strategy & Solutions # Wendy Lau (E-141423) Executive Director Head of Hong Kong Office Strategy & Solutions +852 2846 4988 wendy.lau@hk.knightfrank.com # Steve Ng (E-188091) Executive Director Head of Kowloon Office Strategy & Solutions +852 2846 0688 steve.ng@hk.knightfrank.com # Residential Agency # William Lau (E-096365) Senior Director Head of Residential Agency +852 2846 9550 williammw.lau@hk.knightfrank.com # Retail Services # Helen Mak (E-087455) Senior Director Head of Retail Services +852 2846 9543 helen.mak@hk.knightfrank.com # Valuation & Advisory # Valuation & Advisory Cyrus Fong (S-368139) Executive Director Head of Valuation & Advisory, Greater China +852 2846 7135 cyrus.fong@hk.knightfrank.com # RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS Student Living Revisited (Y)OUR SPACE 2025 The Wealth Report