2017年-世界发展银行全球_South_Africa_Economic_Update_September_2017___Innovation_for_Productivity_and_Inclusiveness_70页_3mb

报告摘要

South Africa Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of South Africa's recent economic developments and explores the role of innovation in driving productivity and inclusiveness. It highlights the challenges facing the economy and outlines key policy recommendations to foster innovation and economic growth.

Main Points

Global Economic Developments

Global Growth Recovery: Global economic growth picked up in 2017, increasing from 2.4% in 2016 to 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, driven by stabilization in commodity prices and improved financial conditions.
Advanced Economies: Growth in advanced economies is expected to moderate as monetary policy becomes less accommodative and interest rates rise.
EMDEs Performance: Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to grow at 4.2% in 2017 and 4.6% in 2018/19, with commodity exporters showing improved growth from 0.9% to 1.8%.
Commodity Prices: Oil prices stabilized around $53 per barrel in 2017, up 24% from 2016, while metal prices rose due to increased demand and supply constraints in China.
Financial Conditions: Global financial conditions remained stable, with reduced bond spreads and stronger currencies for commodity exporters, reflecting increased capital inflows.

South Africa's Economic Developments

Recovery from Recession: South Africa emerged from recession in Q2 2017, but per capita GDP growth did not return to positive levels in 2017.
Economic Stagnation: Per capita incomes barely increased between 2011 and 2016, with over 3 million people joining the poor population, now living on less than R1,131 per month.
Sectoral Contributions: Finance, real estate, and business services were the main contributors to GDP growth, while agriculture, electricity, and gas/water were significant drags.
Productivity Decline: South Africa's productivity has declined, with output 6% lower in 2016 than in 2007 despite the same level of economic resources.
Innovation Gap: Private R&D spending has declined significantly, contributing to a growing innovation gap relative to peers and technological leaders.

Key Policy Recommendations

Foster a Business Climate Conducive to Innovation

Regulatory Reforms: Simplify product market regulations that favor incumbents and reduce red tape, especially for small and young firms.
Legal Reforms: Implement legal reforms and peer learning among local governments to improve the business environment.
E-Government: Leverage e-government solutions to cut red tape and improve ICT industry growth.
Policy Uncertainty: Address uncertainties in intellectual property rights, power purchase agreements, and ICT regulations to attract innovation investment.

Nurture Innovation Ecosystems in Cities

Innovation Districts: Encourage clustering of innovation programs in cities and promote partnerships between academic institutions and private companies.
City-Level Initiatives: Develop open data initiatives, provide access to equipment and experts for start-ups and SMMEs, and establish centers of excellence.
National Support: Ensure national departments provide support and funding for city-level innovation programs to maximize impact.

Build the Skills Base

Education and Training: Strengthen primary and secondary education, adult education, vocational training, and entrepreneurship programs to increase the supply of highly skilled professionals.
Migration Policy: Leverage the government's migration white paper to attract skilled professionals to South Africa and fill labor market gaps.

Improve ICT Infrastructure

Broadband Access: Invest in fast and affordable broadband to support a knowledge economy and efficient public services.
Competition and Quality: Strengthen competition and improve the quality and affordability of ICT services.
Regulatory Independence: Ensure policy independence and clarity for the ICT regulator to expedite stalled processes like 4G licensing.

Enhance the Effectiveness of Public Programs

Consolidation and Scaling: Consolidate and scale up the most effective public innovation and entrepreneurship programs.
Evaluation and Standards: Evaluate the effectiveness of public support programs, including their targeting, cost-effectiveness, and economic impact.
R&D Tax Incentives: Expand R&D tax incentives to include technology absorption and allow non-profitable firms to benefit, thereby supporting young firms' growth.

Conclusion

South Africa faces significant challenges in economic growth and productivity, with a growing innovation gap and persistent labor market issues. The report emphasizes the potential of innovation to enhance competitiveness, create jobs, and improve the lives of millions of poor South Africans. It calls for a strategic focus on improving the business climate, nurturing urban innovation ecosystems, building a skilled workforce, enhancing ICT infrastructure, and strengthening public programs to support innovation and entrepreneurship.

Key Information

Innovation Importance: Innovation is crucial for economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction.
Private Innovation Decline: Private R&D spending has dropped significantly, affecting productivity and competitiveness.
Skills Shortage: High-skilled labor shortages, particularly in ICT, are limiting innovation.
ICT Challenges: South Africa's broadband costs are higher than in many EMDEs, requiring urgent reforms.
Public Programs: Government support programs are a key strength, but their effectiveness needs to be enhanced through consolidation and evaluation.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1.1: Global activity indicators showing growth in manufacturing and services.
Figure 1.2: Global financial conditions, including bond spreads and exchange rates.
Table 1.1: Contributions to GDP by sector.
Table 1.2: Sectoral determinations and national minimum wage.
Table 1.3: Baseline annual growth forecasts.
Table 2.1: Innovation and competitiveness indices.
Table 2.2: Scientific production in BRICS countries.
Table 2.3: Patent Cooperation Treaty top applicants.
Table 2.4: R&D expenditure and intensity by sector.
Table 2.5: Export value of different technology levels in South Africa.
Table 2.6: Top export products by technology group in South Africa.
Table 2.7: Median annual salary of selected jobs.
Table 2.8: Skills in highest demand on LinkedIn, South Africa.

Boxes

Box 1.1: Addressing the youth employment crisis through education and job creation.
Box 1.2: Incubating small businesses to support innovation and entrepreneurship.
Box 2.1: Pioneering carbon capture and storage in South Africa.
Box 2.2: Using tax files data to assess private R&D patterns.
Box 2.3: Clarifying the definition of high-tech exports.
Box 2.4: Adjusting migration policy to build the skills base.
Box 2.5: Public programs to support entrepreneurship and innovation.
Box 2.6: Impact evaluations of innovation support programs.