2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Turkey_Financial_System_Stability_Assessment_109页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of Financial System Stability Assessment on Turkey

Core Content

The Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) report on Turkey, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), outlines the financial stability challenges and vulnerabilities in the Turkish financial system. The assessment is part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and focuses on the systemic stability of the financial sector, rather than individual institutions.

The report highlights that the Turkish financial system is systemically important, and that external and foreign currency financing remains a major source of vulnerability. The long-standing shortfall in domestic savings, elevated inflation, and exchange rate volatility have led to a reliance on international capital markets and short-term deposits by households and firms.

Main Vulnerabilities

1. Financial System Structure

Banks account for over 90% of the financial system’s assets, making them central to financial stability.
Nonbank financial institutions are small relative to peer emerging markets.
The financial system has grown faster than GDP since 2008, with a credit-to-GDP ratio of 118% in 2015.
Credit is increasingly sourced from nondeposit channels, with a wholesale funding share of over 40% of nonequity financing by end-2015.
Foreign currency (FX) exposure is significant, with over 60% of wholesale financing in FX and 45% of NFC debt in FX.

2. Banking Business Models and Risks

The business models of the top 10 banks have converged, increasing exposure to common shocks.
Banks have increased FX and NFC exposures while reducing securities holdings.
Liquidity risk has risen due to short-term funding and maturity transformation.
Asset quality has deteriorated, with nonperforming loans (NPLs) at 2.5–3% of gross lending since 2011.
Restructured loans have increased significantly, from 1% to 3% of gross loans between 2011 and 2015.
Capital buffers are high but have been declining over the medium term due to lower returns and increased risk exposure.

3. Corporate Sector Risks

Nonfinancial corporates (NFCs) are a key counterparty of banks and have high FX liabilities.
Corporate leverage has increased, particularly in FX, with debt-to-equity ratios for public firms doubling to 56% since 2007.
Interest expenses have risen, especially for weaker firms, with interest costs reaching 80% of earnings for the weakest quartile.
SMEs also face rising leverage and diminished profitability, with limited hedging against FX risk.
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have negative returns on assets and are increasingly reliant on bank financing, contributing to contingent liabilities for the sovereign balance sheet.

4. Household Sector Risks

Household credit remains an important part of bank lending.
Debt-to-disposable income has been rising, and loan losses on retail loans have increased by over 40% since 2011.
Macropudential easing on household lending is being implemented, but this comes amid elevated financial stability risks.

Key Recommendations

Recommendation	Timing
Revise legislation to further strengthen BRSA independence	Medium Term (MT)
Deepen and broaden the risk assessment focus of banking inspections and follow-up	Medium Term (MT)
Strengthen corporate governance rules and enforcement	Medium Term (MT)
Evaluate and revise the definition of credit classifications and strengthen enforcement	Short Term (ST)
Improve independence, governance, and accountability of insurance supervisors	Short Term (ST)/Medium Term (MT)
Strengthen macroprudential measures to lower FX risk	Immediate (I)
Strengthen FSC governance and powers, provide an explicit financial stability objective to all members, and limit the role of the Council of Ministers (CoM)	Short Term (ST)
Develop procedures for systemic risk assessment and coordination of macroprudential policies	Short Term (ST)/Medium Term (MT)
Base policy tool choices on an integrated assessment of systemic risk and cost-benefit analysis	Short Term (ST)
Strengthen transparency (including publishing an Annual Report)	Short Term (ST)
Orient liquidity provision towards a single key policy rate	Immediate (I)
Increase net FX reserves to be within the range of 100–150% of ARA metric	Medium Term (MT)
Improve ELA capacity, reclassify CBRT FX lending facility as ELA, and increase conditionality	Short Term (ST)
Strengthen recovery and resolution planning, and enhance resolution powers	Medium Term (MT)
Strengthen domestic and cross-border coordination arrangements	Short Term (ST)
Determine reason for low ML conviction rates and plan to address them	Medium Term (MT)
Introduce customer due diligence requirements for politically exposed persons	Short Term (ST)
Ensure compliance with UNSCRs, and strengthen border controls on currency transportation	Medium Term (MT)

Systemic Risk Management

The Financial Stability Committee (FSC) has improved its systemic risk oversight by regularly bringing together regulatory heads and applying macroprudential tools with positive results.
Systemic liquidity risks remain high, and the NPS should be strengthened with better risk management frameworks for interdependencies among financial market infrastructures (FMIs).
Crisis management and bank resolution procedures are being improved, with the creation of a new working group reporting to the FSC.
Cross-border coordination and capacity-building initiatives are also needed to enhance financial resilience.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of a strong policy framework and enhanced oversight to improve the resilience of the Turkish financial system. It highlights the need to reduce reliance on foreign currency financing, enhance liquidity management, improve transparency, and address corporate and household sector vulnerabilities. The FSAP recommendations aim to lower systemic risks, strengthen financial stability, and ensure a more robust and resilient financial system.