2014年-世界发展银行全球_Harnessing_the_Global_Recovery___A_Tough_Road_Ahead_4页_885kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning - Quick Notes Series

April 2014 - Number 122

Core Content Overview

This report provides an economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for 2014 and 2015, highlighting the impact of global recovery and regional challenges on economic performance, employment, inequality, and fiscal sustainability.

Main Points of the Report

Global Economic Recovery and Its Impact on MENA

• Global Outlook: 2014 is seen as hopeful, with global growth expected to increase to 3.2% from 2.4% in 2013. 2015 could be a turning point for MENA.
• Drivers of Global Growth: The US, UK, and Euro Zone are expected to see growth, while developing countries (especially China and India) will continue to be major contributors.
• MENA's Growth Prospects: The region's growth is expected to improve to 3.3% in 2014 and 4.6% in 2015, though still below the 2000–2014 average.
• Oil Exporters: GCC countries are expected to lead the recovery, with growth projected at 3.5% in 2014 and 4.8% in 2015.
• Oil Importers: Countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, and Jordan are expected to see a slight rebound, but face significant risks due to political instability and high debt levels.

Regional Economic Recovery

• GCC Countries: Large stimulus packages and increased foreign investment are expected to support growth.
• Transition Countries:
  • Egypt: Two stimulus packages (3% of GDP) are expected to boost growth to 2.7% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015.
  • Tunisia: Growth is projected at 3% in 2014 and 4.5% in 2015.
  • Jordan: Expected to grow at 3.5% in 2015 due to increased public investment.
  • Lebanon: Growth is expected to double in 2014 compared to 2013, but remain below pre-conflict levels due to security and political issues.
• Conflict-Affected Countries:
  • Iran: Growth is projected to reach 1.5% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015.
  • Yemen and Libya: Political instability has hindered growth, but some recovery is expected in 2015, especially in non-oil sectors for Yemen.

Key Risks and Challenges

Structural Issues in MENA

• High Unemployment: Regional unemployment is at 11%, with youth unemployment exceeding 50% in Yemen and Libya.
• Labor Market Segmentation: A clear divide exists between protected and excluded workers.
• Low Labor Force Participation: Particularly among women.
• Corruption and Wasta: Common in public sector hiring, with 80% of Tunisians believing connections are critical for employment.

Fiscal Pressures and Subsidy Challenges

• Fiscal Space: Limited due to high civil service wage bills and subsidies.
• Subsidy Impact:
  • Energy subsidies in Tunisia amount to 5% of GDP, equivalent to the government's total budget deficit.
  • Food and fuel subsidies disproportionately benefit the wealthy.
  • In Egypt, subsidies (9% of GDP) contribute to a high fiscal deficit (13.7% of GDP).
  • In Iran, the shift from subsidies to cash transfers led to unexpected fiscal costs and increased deficits and inflation.

Economic Vulnerability

• External Shocks: High dependency on oil and limited trade diversification make economies vulnerable.
• Poverty and Inequality: While poverty has decreased, many are still vulnerable to shocks. A small increase in the poverty line could push significant populations into poverty.
• Fiscal Deficits: Rising in many countries due to increased current spending and reduced revenues.

Economic Diversification and Intangible Capital

• Need for Diversification: The region lacks economic diversification, leading to growth volatility.
• Intangible Capital: MENA has historically invested less in intangible capital (education, innovation, institutions) compared to other regions, which has hindered long-term growth.
• Strategy for Diversification: Governments should focus on diversifying accumulated wealth through investments in education, innovation, and institutions rather than just subsidizing industries.

Fiscal and External Financing Needs

• External Financing: Increased since the Arab Spring, with $50 billion needed in 2015.
• GCC Contributions: Over $38.5 billion was disbursed from 2011 to 2013, with more than half coming from GCC countries.
• Foreign Reserves:
  • Egypt and Tunisia now have reserves covering only 4 months of imports.
  • Yemen’s reserves cover 3 months, while Libya’s have dropped from $122 billion in 2013 to $82 billion in 2015.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The report underscores that while the global recovery offers some hope for MENA, the region's structural challenges, high unemployment, and fiscal vulnerabilities remain significant. Sustainable growth requires:

• Economic diversification and investment in intangible capital.
• Reform of labor markets and reduction of corruption.
• Effective management of subsidies and fiscal deficits.
• Political stability and improved governance.

Contact Information

• Gerard A. Byam, Director, Strategy and Operations, MENA Region, The World Bank.
• Preeti Ahuja, Manager, MNADE.
• Regional Quick Notes Team: Omer Karasapan and Mark Volk.
• Tel #: (202) 473 8177

Note: The MNA Quick Notes summarize lessons learned from World Bank activities and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its board, or its member countries.