2024-10-13-IMF-移民到欧盟_最近的发展和宏观经济影响（英）_44页_1mb

Migration into the EU: Summary of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications

Core Content

This working paper analyzes the recent surge in migration into the European Union (EU) and its macroeconomic implications, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. It highlights the significant impact of migration on labor markets, potential output, fiscal balances, and public services, while also addressing public perceptions and policy responses.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Recent Migration Trends

• Record Immigration Levels: In 2022, immigration into the EU reached a historical high, with approximately 6.5 million non-EU citizens, including over 4 million Ukrainian refugees, entering the EU.
• Post-Pandemic Recovery: Migration levels remained significantly above pre-pandemic averages in 2023, with net migration of around 0.8 percent of the EU population.
• Regional Variability: Migration was highly uneven across the EU. Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Germany and Poland, saw the largest inflows, while some regions in Western Europe experienced moderate or even negative net migration.
• Non-EU Citizens as a Key Component: Non-EU citizens accounted for about two-thirds of new jobs created between 2019 and 2023, contributing significantly to labor market demand.
• Ukrainian Refugees: Ukrainian refugees were absorbed into the labor market faster than previous refugee waves, likely due to the temporary protection scheme allowing immediate employment.

2. Macroeconomic Implications

• Potential Output Growth: The influx of migrants is estimated to increase the EU's potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030, which is slightly less than half of the euro area's potential GDP growth at that time.
• Labor Market Effects: Immigration helped reduce labor shortages, with unemployment rates of EU citizens remaining at historic lows.
• Productivity Gains: The literature generally supports the idea that migration has a positive impact on productivity, driven by factors such as cultural diversity, knowledge diffusion, and skill complementarity.
• Fiscal Impact: Initial fiscal costs of migration were estimated at around 0.2 percent of EU GDP. Long-term fiscal effects are likely neutral, though they depend on the integration of migrants and their productivity.
• Congestion Costs: Large migration inflows have led to initial congestion in public services, particularly in areas with high population growth. This includes overcrowding in schools, housing shortages, and public transportation.

3. Local and Subnational Impacts

• Local Service Pressures: The supply of public services and amenities, such as education and housing, has struggled to keep up with the rapid population growth in some regions, leading to localized challenges.
• Intra-EU Migration: Migration flows within the EU among nationals have remained relatively stable at around 2 million per year, suggesting that EU-wide mobility is still constrained by certain barriers.

4. Public Perceptions and Political Effects

• Immigration as a Major Concern: Around one-quarter of Eurobarometer respondents listed immigration as one of the two most important issues facing the EU in Spring 2024, ranking it as the second most named concern after the war in Ukraine.
• Cultural vs. Economic Perceptions: Perceptions of immigration are more influenced by cultural factors than economic ones. However, more inclusive integration policies are associated with lower economic threat perceptions.
• Regional Differences: Perceptions vary by region, with higher concentrations of migrants leading to lower perceived threats in some areas due to increased contact and habituation.

Policy Implications

• Integration into Labor Markets: Governments should focus on integrating migrants into the labor force in a way that maximizes productivity and minimizes negative impacts on native workers.
• Public Service Capacity: Ensuring that the supply of public services and amenities keeps pace with population growth is essential to avoid congestion and maintain public support.
• Balanced Migration Policies: Policies should be designed to manage both the economic benefits and challenges of migration, including its long-term fiscal and demographic implications.

Conclusion

The paper underscores the significant role of immigration in addressing Europe's demographic challenges and boosting labor market performance. While there are initial costs and localized service pressures, the long-term benefits—particularly in terms of potential output and economic growth—are substantial. Effective integration policies and public service adjustments are crucial to maximizing these benefits while managing public concerns.