2022-08-02-兴业投资-美通胀或见顶_美元续跌加元疲弱_2页_133kb

Market Summary for August 2, 2022

Overall Overview

• Market anticipates a possible peak in inflation as the Fed's interest rate hikes may be nearing a turnaround. The US dollar continues to depreciate amid fading hopes for aggressive rate increases and growing recession fears, boosting non-USD currencies. Non-commodity currencies like the euro and pound show strength, while pairs like USD/JPY face selling pressure. Gold consolidates near 1780, and silver exhibits modest gains with some divergence.

Fundamental Analysis

• Economic outlook: Expectations of policy shifts at the Federal Reserve and potential US recession contribute to USD weakness. USISMManufacturing PMI is at 52.8 (below 50), indicating slowdown but slight improvement, with specific components like new orders and employment showing contraction but better than forecasts. Markets selectively focus on negative data, amplifying USD decline and potentially surprising Australian RBA rate decisions.

EUR/USD

• Trend remains bullish with EUR testing key resistance near 1.0300. Technical indicators suggest continued upside with minor corrective pullbacks.

GBP/USD

• Holds upside momentum, targeting 1.2300 with strong support at 1.2200, reflecting better performance than EUR.

USD/JPY

• Faces strong downward pressure due to bearish technicals, key support at 130.50 and resistance near 131.30.

Gold

• Bullish outlook for testing 1780, with support clustered around 1775-1750, indicating consolidation before further upside.

Silver

• Mixed signals with tentative gains but bearish divergence at higher timeframes; focuses on resistance near 21.00 and support at 20.20.