2025-06-10-Jefferies-学院体育（ASO）_客户仍然善变_但举措和关税带来令人鼓舞的进展_11页_6mb

Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) Equity Research Summary

Rating and Price Target Change: Jefferies recommends "Buy" with a revised price target of $59, indicating a 33% upside from the previous $52 estimate. This reflects optimism despite recent share flatness, driven by factors like trade-downs and improved merchandising.

Key Positive Drivers: The stock is valued at approximately 6.5x Street's 2026 EPS estimate due to accelerating tailwinds from trade-downs, strong performance from high-income customers (over $100K household spend), and initiatives like private label expansion, e-commerce penetration (up to 400 bps), and loyalty programs. Recent store openings are performing well, with comps for the '22-'23 classes showing slight strength.

Challenges and Risks: Concerns include a return to negative comparable sales in May, cautious Hispanic consumer behavior affecting traffic for quintiles 4 and 5, and soft performance for new stores ('24 class not yet comped but expected to drive growth). Risks also extend to broader factors such as competitive pressure, falling sports participation, and firearm/ammo exposure, along with potential tariff headwinds from China and reciprocal tariffs reimplementation.

Financial Highlights: Projected EPS ranges from $5.95 to $6.65 for 2025 and 2026, with 2025 Comp revisions from flat to potentially neutral. Gross margin targets around 35%, while store base is 275 units. e-Commerce and private label are poised for significant growth, mitigating promotional reliance.

Outlook and Catalysts: Long-term growth upside comes from a large untapped store footprint, increasing owned brands, and expansion into categories like firearms, offering differentiation. Near-term catalysts include brand debuts (e.g., Converse and Jordan) and loyalty program enrollment, expected to boost transactions and mindfulness. Jefferies' valuation models predict a base case with upside to $65 and down to $36, based on P/E multiples and EBITDA.

Risks Contemplated: Downside includes unfavorable consumer trends, markdown pressure, vendor reallocations, and sustainability concerns. The updated rating considers these but maintains confidence in ASO's trajectory.