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Summary of "Around the World in 80 Charts"

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of global trade and freight market trends as of early September 2025, using a high-frequency dataset based on satellite data from 90,000 ships, generating over 25,000 data points weekly. The data offer real-time insights into container import and export volumes by region, with a one-week lag.

Main Trends and Key Points

Global Trade Overview

• Global trade growth: Slowed to +3% yoy in Q3, compared to +4% YTD.
• Resilience outside the US: Only the US showed a decline in trade volumes (-1% yoy in August), while other regions remained relatively stable.
• China's role: China's manufacturing strength has driven export growth, with +5% ytd vs. global +4% yoy. China's exports are increasingly directed to emerging markets (Latin America, Africa) and Europe.
• Currency impact: The appreciation of the EUR vs. CNY has further boosted European imports from China while reducing European exports to China.

Regional Breakdown

• Europe: Container imports grew strongly YTD and during the summer, but recent trends have softened. The EUR/CNY exchange rate has supported import growth.
• US: Container trade is declining, with negative growth in QTD and YTD. US retailers expect to import less in Q4.
• SE Asia: Trade volumes have softened since new US tariffs were implemented.
• Africa: Remains the most dynamic region, with significant growth in container trade.

Freight Market Analysis

• Ocean freight: Q3 growth is +3%, with a positive skew to Asia-Europe and North-South trades. US trade is expected to underperform, and container rates are likely to continue sliding due to slowing demand and overcapacity.
• Air freight: Slightly more resilient than expected, with +3% yoy growth in QTD (August). Rates remain broadly stable, and demand for tech shipments has supported growth.
• Port congestion: Reduced in Europe, stable in SE Asia, and higher in China due to weather impacts.

Transportation Modes

• Road traffic: Modest positive growth in Europe, with notable increases in France and Germany. Toronto and Dallas congestion has shown slight softening compared to 2019 levels.
• Airlines: Atlantic routes have seen some recovery, while short-haul routes are weaker. European airports like Frankfurt and Zurich show strong traffic, while others like LGW and AENA show underperformance.

Key Information

Data Sources

• Satellite data: From 90,000 ships, providing real-time trade insights.
• Official data: From IMF Portwatch, UN Global Platform, and various regional and company sources.
• Analyst data: From Bloomberg, OAG, and other financial and logistics platforms.

Forecast and Outlook

• Q4 expectations: US trade is expected to continue softening due to frontloading and inventory trends. Air freight may also soften as inventories are well-stocked.
• Container rates: Likely to keep sliding into year-end due to supply and demand imbalances.
• Potential impact: New US service fees targeting Chinese-built fleets could add to import costs and complexity in October.

Contributors

• Patrick Creuset: +33(1)4212-1380 | patrick.creuset@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris
• Dan-Arthur Coseru: +44(20)7552-2216 | dan.arthur.coseru@gs.com | Goldman Sachs International
• Nathan Arnaud: +33(1)4212-1691 | nathan.arnaud@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris
• Ben Andrews, CFA: +44(20)7774-5489 | ben.andrews@gs.com | Goldman Sachs International
• Poppy Boyd-Taylor: +44(20)7774-2994 | poppy.boyd.taylor@gs.com | Goldman Sachs International

Additional Information

• GS Factor Profile: Provides investment context by comparing key attributes (Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, Integrated) to the market and sector peers.
• M&A Rank: Scores companies on the likelihood of being acquired, with 1 being high probability and 3 being low.
• Quantum: Goldman Sachs' proprietary database for detailed financial analysis.
• Disclosures: Highlights the use of Clarksons Research data and the limitations of relying on such information, including potential errors and the lack of liability for data users.

Table of Contents Highlights

• Global trade snapshot: Exhibit 1 and 2 show trade growth and regional performance.
• Freight markets: Volume resilience outside the US, ocean and air freight trends.
• Container rates: Expected to continue sliding, with regional variations.
• Travel and airlines: Traffic growth in Europe, load factors, and pricing trends.
• Airports: Regional performance with focus on Germany and Switzerland.
• Roads: Modest traffic growth and congestion trends.
• Commodities shipping: Crude and dry bulk shipping rates and fleet dynamics.

Investment Ratings

• Rating distribution: 49% Buy, 34% Hold, 17% Sell.
• Investment Banking Relationships: 62% Buy, 57% Hold, 40% Sell.

This report offers a detailed view of global trade and freight dynamics, highlighting the resilience of non-US markets and the impact of China's manufacturing strength, while also outlining the challenges faced by the US and expectations for the coming quarters.