2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Armenian_road_to_democracy_28页_1mb

Summary of The Armenian Road to Democracy: Dimensions of a Tortuous Process

Core Content

This paper explores the complex and often contradictory process of Armenian democratisation following the collapse of the Soviet Union. It examines both internal and external factors that have shaped this transition, highlighting the challenges and opportunities faced by Armenia in its pursuit of liberal democratic and market-oriented reforms. The analysis focuses on the role of leadership, political parties, civil society, and the influence of international actors, particularly the European Union (EU), in this process.

Main Views

Internal Dimensions of the Transition

• Political and Institutional Challenges: Armenia's transition has been marked by the struggle between state-building and market economy reforms. The political dimension has often been driven by nationalist rhetoric, while economic reforms have led to wealth concentration, social polarisation, and corruption.
• Weak Democratic Foundations: Despite the formal adoption of multi-party elections, Armenia has struggled with low civic participation, lack of multiparty political and civic groupings, and violations of legal principles. This has resulted in a phenomenon known as "low intensity democracy," where the appearance of democratic governance overshadows real democratic practices.
• National Security as a Dominant Factor: The Armenian state has been shaped by a deep sense of isolation and threat, especially due to the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict. National security concerns have influenced political decisions, often at the expense of democratic development.
• Role of the Military and Oligarchic Power: The military has been seen as a key player in the political system, and the concentration of economic power among a small elite has hindered democratic processes. The government has implemented anti-corruption strategies, but these are often perceived as superficial efforts to maintain an appearance of democracy.
• Judicial Reform and Civil Society: The paper underscores the need for judicial reform to ensure independence and fairness. Civil society, though important, has been limited by a culture of patronage and private connections, which are deeply rooted in post-Soviet Armenian society.

External Dimensions of the Transition

• EU's Role in the Process: The European Union has played a significant role in Armenia's democratisation through the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), which includes conditionality and support mechanisms. The EU has been a key external actor in pushing for democratic reforms and aligning Armenia with European standards.
• Regional Dynamics: Armenia's relations with its neighbours—Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Iran—are complex and often adversarial. The NK conflict has strained relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, while Georgia is seen as a strategic partner due to its role in connecting Armenia to Russia and the West.
• Strategic Positioning: The EU's ENP Action Plan is viewed as an opportunity for Armenia to move closer to democratic standards, but the success of this depends on the willingness of Armenian political elites to accept external pressures and reforms.

Key Information

• Democracy as a Framework for Reform: The paper argues that democracy is not just about elections, but also about political accountability, the rule of law, and the development of a strong civil society.
• Impact of the NK Conflict: The conflict has been a central driver of Armenian foreign and domestic policy, reinforcing nationalist sentiments and shaping the political landscape.
• EU and ENP: The EU's ENP is presented as a potential catalyst for Armenian democratisation, though its effectiveness is contingent on internal political will and the ability to implement reforms.
• Challenges to Implementation: Despite efforts, the implementation of democratic reforms in Armenia has been hampered by weak institutions, corruption, and the influence of powerful elites. The paper highlights the fragility of democratic institutions and the need for sustained reform efforts.

Conclusion

The Armenian path to democracy is characterised by a combination of internal constraints and external influences. While the country has made some progress in aligning with Western democratic norms, the deep-rooted legacy of Soviet rule, the persistent threat from the NK conflict, and the influence of powerful elites continue to impede meaningful democratic development. The EU's role, through the ENP, is seen as both a challenge and an opportunity, but its impact remains limited without significant internal political reform. The paper calls for a more comprehensive understanding of the democratic process in Armenia, taking into account both the structural and cultural factors that shape its development.