20251114-国泰期货-南美大豆_玉米主产区天气展望_1页_1mb

Summary of Agricultural Weather Forecast and Crop Conditions

Brazil Soybeans

• Sowing Progress: 58.4% complete by November 8, 2025, below last year's 66.1% and five-year average of 57%.
• Germination and Emergence Rates: 22% emerged, 76.8% sprouted. States with delayed progress: Goias and Santa Catarina.
• Future Weather: Short-term forecast shows less precipitation in eastern, central, and southern regions, but a good precipitation outlook in the second week, with rainy season returning gradually. Favorable conditions may help offset delays from excessive moisture.
• Potential Market Impact: Dry weather could affect yields; wet conditions may limit sowing in affected areas.
• Production Weight: Mato Grosso contributes 26%.

Argentina Soybeans

• Sowing Progress: 29% complete by November 6, 2025.
• Future Weather: Slightly less precipitation expected in the coming weeks; dry conditions favorable for sowing.
• Potential Market Impact: Weather conditions may support timely sowing but could affect overall output if precipitation deficits persist.

Brazil Corn

• Sowing Progress: 47.7% complete by November 8, 2025, above last year's 45.5% and five-year average of 45.5%.
• Future Weather: Similar to soybeans, less precipitation in eastern and central regions, with improved chances in the second week; dry air may aid early growth.
• Potential Market Impact: Weather patterns could influence harvest timing and yield quality.
• Production Weight: Mato Grosso contributes 32.9%.

Argentina Corn

• Sowing Progress: 36% complete by November 6, 2025, slightly below the five-year average.
• Future Weather: Slightly less precipitation expected; dry weather supports sowing activities.
• Potential Market Impact: Expected to ease planting pressures but risks from insufficient rainfall remain.
• Production Weight: Cordoba leads with 33% contribution.

Overall, weather forecasts predict a mix of dry and improving conditions, potentially aiding sowing but posing risks to yields in key producing regions. Market implications include possible price fluctuations due to varying precipitation and germination rates.