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NORAD Discusses North Korea's Missile Technology Summary

Core Content

On April 8, 2015, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command issued statements regarding North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities, particularly focusing on the potential development of the road-mobile KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The briefing was led by Adm. William Gortney, the commander of NORAD and U.S. Northern Command, and addressed the implications of North Korea's advancements in missile technology for strategic stability and U.S. defense posture.

Main Strategic Implications

• Survivability of North Korea's Nuclear Forces:
  If the KN-08 is confirmed as a road-mobile ICBM, it would significantly enhance the survivability of North Korea's nuclear arsenal. This mobility makes it harder for the U.S. to track and neutralize these weapons, as they can be relocated quickly.

• Persistent ISR Limitation:
  The U.S. currently lacks the capability for persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) over North Korea, which is necessary to monitor and respond to mobile missile systems like the KN-08. This limitation reduces the effectiveness of U.S. countermeasures against such threats.

• Strategic Stability Concerns:
  Adm. Gortney noted that if North Korea successfully flight-tests the KN-08, it could undermine strategic stability. The U.S. would find it more difficult to deter North Korea due to the increased unpredictability and survivability of its nuclear forces.

Key Information About the KN-08 ICBM

• Type and Capability:
  The KN-08 is believed to be a three-stage liquid-fuel ICBM. It was first publicly displayed in April 2012, raising speculation about its operational readiness.

• Range and Payload:
  The missile is speculated to have a range capable of reaching the U.S. west coast. It may be able to carry a miniaturized nuclear warhead, which would allow for more precise targeting.

• Testing Status:
  While North Korea has the technical capability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead for the KN-08, Adm. Gortney emphasized that such technology has not yet been flight-tested. This means that the actual effectiveness and reliability of the KN-08 remain uncertain.

Contextual Events in April 2015

• Anniversaries in North Korea:
  April 2015 marked several important dates in North Korea's history, including:

  • Kim Il Sung's birthday (April 15)
  • The founding of the Korean People's Army (April 25)

• Military Activities:
  On April 1, North Korea established a no-fly, no-sail zone over the East Sea, which raised concerns about potential military actions or missile tests. This move was interpreted as a possible precursor to a provocative event.

• Satellite Launches:
  In April 2012, North Korea launched the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite, which had a trajectory over the East Sea. This was followed by a successful satellite launch in December 2012, indicating progress in their space and missile programs.

Additional Notes

• The Korea Chair Snapshot is a publication by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which provides nonpartisan and nonproprietary insights into breaking events related to North Korea.
• The summary reflects the views of the author(s) and does not represent the official policy positions of CSIS.