20260209-招银国际-Growth_story_unchanged_with_acceleration_in_AWS_revenue_growth_better_than_expectation_7页_815kb

Amazon (AMZN US) Summary

Core Content

Amazon reported its 4Q25 financial results, showing strong revenue growth and improved operating profit. The company's AWS segment demonstrated accelerated revenue growth, surpassing expectations, and highlighted significant progress in expanding its infrastructure and AI capabilities. The firm maintains a BUY rating with an updated target price of US$292.00, reflecting a 38.8% upside from the current price of US$210.32.

Main Points

• Revenue Growth: Amazon's total revenue in 4Q25 reached US$213.4bn, up 14% YoY, or 12% on a constant currency basis. For the full year of 2025, revenue grew 12% YoY to US$716.9bn.
• Operating Profit: Operating profit in 4Q25 was US$25.0bn, up 18% YoY. Excluding special charges, it was 10% ahead of consensus.
• AWS Performance: AWS revenue grew 23.6% YoY in 4Q25, surpassing the previous quarter's 20.2% and the 4Q24's 18.9%. AWS's operating margin expanded to 35.0%, 0.7ppts ahead of consensus. The backlog reached US$244bn, with continued capacity expansion.
• Capex Guidance: Management guided for US$200bn in capex for 2026E, significantly higher than the 2025 capex of US$128bn. This may impact cash flow and operating profit forecasts.
• Forecast Revisions: The firm raised its 2026-2027E revenue forecasts by 2-3% due to better-than-expected AWS growth, while lowering operating profit forecasts by 2-4% due to depreciation and new initiatives.
• Valuation: The target price was increased by 9% to US$292.00, based on a 17.3x EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with the two-year average trading range.

Key Financials

• Revenue Breakdown:
  • North America: US$127.1bn in 4Q25, up 9.9% YoY, with OPM of 9.0% (up 1.0ppt YoY).
  • International: US$50.7bn in 4Q25, up 16.8% YoY, with OPM of 2.1% (down 0.9ppt YoY).
  • AWS: US$35.6bn in 4Q25, up 23.6% YoY, with OPM of 35.0% (up 0.4ppt QoQ).
• Segment Growth:
  • Online Stores: Revenue increased by 9.8% YoY to US$83.0bn.
  • Subscription Services: Revenue grew by 14.0% YoY to US$13.1bn.
  • Advertising Services: Revenue increased by 23.3% YoY to US$21.3bn.
• Margins:
  • Gross Margin (GPM): 48.5% in 4Q25, down 0.2ppt YoY.
  • Operating Margin (OPM): 11.7% in 4Q25, up 0.0ppt YoY.
  • Net Margin (NPM): 9.9% in 4Q25, down 0.1ppt YoY.

Forecast and Valuation

• Revenue Forecast:
  • FY26E: US$808.3bn (+12.7% YoY)
  • FY27E: US$907.9bn (+12.3% YoY)
  • FY28E: US$1,011.56bn (+11.4% YoY)
• Operating Profit Forecast:
  • FY26E: US$97.8bn
  • FY27E: US$123.1bn
  • FY28E: US$151.8bn
• Net Profit Forecast:
  • FY26E: US$82.7bn
  • FY27E: US$99.1bn
  • FY28E: US$115.6bn
• Valuation Metrics:
  • P/E Ratio: 27.4x for FY26E, 23.0x for FY27E, 19.9x for FY28E.
  • P/B Ratio: 4.5x for FY26E, 3.6x for FY27E, 3.0x for FY28E.
  • Target Price: US$292.00, based on 17.3x EV/EBITDA.

AI Initiatives and Performance

• Trainium and Graviton: Combined annual revenue run rate exceeds US$10bn, growing at a triple-digit rate YoY. Graviton is used by over 90% of top 1,000 AWS customers and is 40% more price-performant than leading x86 processors.
• Rufus: AI-powered shopping assistant used by 300mn customers, contributing nearly US$12bn in incremental annualized sales in 2025.

Shareholding and Performance

• Major Shareholders:
  • Jeffrey P. Bezos: 8.3%
  • The Vanguard Group, Inc.: 7.9%
• Share Performance:
  • 12-month Price Performance: -13.5% absolute, -13.4% relative.
• Market Cap: US$2,310,095.7mn.
• Share Outstanding: 10,983.7mn.

Financial Summary

• Income Statement:
  • Revenue: Expected to grow steadily from FY24A to FY28E.
  • Gross Profit: Projected to increase by 18% CAGR from 2025 to 2028.
  • Operating Profit: Projected to grow at a slower pace due to elevated capex.
  • Net Profit: Expected to grow at a moderate pace, with a slight decline in OPM.
• Balance Sheet:
  • Total Assets: Expected to increase significantly through 2028.
  • Total Liabilities: Projected to rise, with a focus on long-term borrowings.
  • Shareholders Equity: Expected to grow due to retained earnings and capital surplus.
• Cash Flow:
  • Operating Cash Flow: Expected to increase in 2026E, with a significant rise in 2027E and 2028E.
  • Investing Cash Flow: Negative due to high capex.
  • Financing Cash Flow: Negative in 2026E, with some positive changes in later years.

Analyst Rating and Disclaimer

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY, with a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• Disclosure: The report contains general information and is not tailored to individual investors. It should not be considered as investment advice. Investors are encouraged to consult professional financial advisors.