2023-10-16-科尔尼-winning_business_models_for_passenger_flight_9页_507kb

报告摘要

Advanced Air Mobility: Winning Business Models for Passenger Flight

Core Content

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is a transformative concept in transportation, leveraging 4IR technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and clean tech. It aims to address underserved markets, particularly in urban and regional areas, by offering faster and more efficient travel options. AAM includes aircraft with electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) and short takeoff and landing (sTOL) capabilities.

Main Use Cases

There are three primary use cases for AAM, each with distinct characteristics and technological needs:

Key Journey Feature	Urban Air Mobility (UAM)	Metropolitan Air Mobility (MAM)	Regional Air Mobility (RAM)
Route	Intra-city	Intra metropolitan area	City to surrounding towns/rural areas, city to city, inter-islands
Indicative range	10–15 km	15–30 km	30–250 km
Average speed	70–80 km/h	80–100 km/h	100–200 km/h
Frequency	High at daily peak	High throughout day	Medium, distributed throughout week
Network type	Hub-and-spoke	Hub-and-spoke	Point to point
Main competing modes	Subway/taxis	Commuter rail and taxis	Rail
Demand stimulation	Low	Low	High
Payload capacity	4–5 seats	4–5 seats plus hand baggage	5–6 seats plus hand baggage

These use cases are defined by their operational scope and the specific challenges they face.

Key Technologies

The technologies required for AAM vary by use case:

Key Enabling Technology	Urban Air Mobility (UAM)	Metropolitan Air Mobility (MAM)	Regional Air Mobility (RAM)
Autonomous vehicle	●	●	●
Battery energy density	●	●	●
Battery power density	●	●	●
Battery quick charging	●	●	●
Hybrid propulsion	●	●	●

Autonomous operations are essential for UAM to achieve operational and economic feasibility. Hybrid propulsion, on the other hand, is crucial for RAM due to its higher range and payload demands.

Systemic Challenges

The introduction of AAM faces significant systemic challenges:

Vertiport Siting: A high network density of vertiports is necessary to ensure time savings for passengers, especially in UAM.
Airspace Configuration: Integration into lower airspace is vital for direct flight paths and will be a key enabler for AAM's time efficiency.
Supply Chain Resilience: OEMs must develop specialized supplier networks, particularly for battery manufacturing, to meet AAM's performance needs.
Regulatory Hurdles: Certification delays and evolving regulations may slow down the commercial rollout of passenger AAM.

Business Model Forecast

The adoption of AAM is expected to occur in waves:

First Wave – MAM: Likely to be the first to reach critical mass, due to its shorter range, strong premium-traveler demand, and easier operations. Vertiport developers at airports and urban locations will benefit from a first-mover advantage.
Second Wave – RAM: Expected to gain traction after 2030, as propulsion technology improves and battery performance becomes more reliable. RAM will be more attractive in regions with underdeveloped rail infrastructure.
Third Wave – UAM: Anticipated around 2040, once autonomous operations and sufficient vertiport density are achieved, allowing for true urban mass transit.

Conclusion

AAM represents a pivotal shift in transportation, driven by 4IR technologies. While challenges remain, the environmental and business case for AAM is strengthening. Companies and public agencies must plan for the integration of AAM into the transport ecosystem, with a focus on partnerships, technological advancements, and supply chain resilience.

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