世界银行-也门到2030年的替代路径：基于CGE的模拟分析（英）-2023.11-47页_840kb

Alternative Paths for Yemen up to 2030: A CGE-Based Simulation Analysis Summary

Objective

This paper analyzes potential economic scenarios for Yemen's development from 2022 to 2030, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate outcomes under varying conditions of conflict resolution, governance improvements, and international support.

Methodology

The analysis employs the SDGSIM CGE model, calibrated with a 2020 social accounting matrix (SAM) compiled from sources like the World Bank, IMF, and UN data. This model evaluates seven key dimensions: health and education, infrastructure, social transfers, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), oil and gas extraction, and foreign aid. Scenarios are simulated based on assumptions about economic growth, policy changes, and external shocks.

Key Findings

• Base Scenario: Assumes continued conflict, leading to slow growth, persistent poverty (headcount rate at 74.4% in 2030), and low investment levels.
• Alternative Scenarios: Improved security and governance, with donor aid and investments in human capital and infrastructure could boost growth by 2-3 percentage points annually, reducing poverty and enhancing living standards. For example, strong recovery scenarios show significant increases in household consumption and GDP.
• Implications: Yemen's low infrastructure and human development levels make such investments highly beneficial, but strong governance and efficient aid are necessary. The analysis highlights that resolving conflict and increasing foreign aid can facilitate sustainable economic recovery.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that with conflict resolution, better governance, and targeted investments, Yemen can achieve substantial poverty reduction and economic progress by 2030. However, high returns on investments depend on effective management of funds and policies to avoid negative distributional impacts.