芝加哥全球事务委员会-美国人、日本人和韩国人对中国的意图持谨慎态度（英）-2021.8-15页_2mb

Summary of Document: Americans, Japanese, and South Koreans Wary of China's Intentions

Core Content

This document presents the findings of public opinion surveys conducted in the United States, Japan, and South Korea in March and April 2021. It highlights the shared concerns of these three countries regarding China's growing influence and intentions, while also noting internal divisions that may hinder deeper trilateral cooperation.

Main Findings

• Perception of China's Intentions:
  A majority in all three countries believe China seeks to replace the United States as the dominant power in the world or in the Asia-Pacific.

  • 67% of Americans
  • 60% of South Koreans
  • 43% of Japanese believe China aims to replace the U.S. globally.
  • 28% of Koreans and 18% of Americans believe China seeks to replace the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific.

• Threat Perceptions:
  While China is seen as a threat, it is not the top concern in any of the three countries.

  • Military Threat:
    • 53% in the U.S., 55% in Japan, and 53% in South Korea view China's military power as a critical threat.
  • Economic Threat:
    • 6 in 10 in all three countries see China as more of an economic threat than a partner.
    • Over 75% in the U.S. and Japan support cooperation with China on global issues like climate change and pandemic prevention.

• Alliance Priorities:

  • Denuclearizing North Korea is the top priority for all three countries.
  • Encouraging economic growth is also a priority in the U.S. and South Korea.
  • Limiting China's expansion in Asia is not a top priority for any of the publics.
  • Publics in all three countries prefer to strengthen traditional alliances with the U.S. even if it means reducing ties with China.

• Relations with China:

  • Despite economic ties, relations with China are generally viewed as adversarial.
  • Majorities in Japan (73%), the U.S. (67%), and South Korea (60%) see China as more of an economic threat than a partner.
  • Similarly, they see China as more of a security threat than a security partner.

• Alliance with the United States:

  • The U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific is seen as a stabilizing force by majorities in Japan (82%) and South Korea (83%).
  • Publics in Japan and South Korea support maintaining or increasing the U.S. military presence.
  • The alliance is increasingly viewed as based on shared democratic values, not just security interests.
    • In South Korea, 54% see the alliance as based on both security and shared values.
    • In Japan, 35% see it as based on security, while 26% see it as based on both security and shared values.

• Japan-South Korea Tensions:

  • Mutual perceptions of rivalry between Japan and South Korea are high.
    • 80% of Japanese and 72% of South Koreans view each other as mostly rivals.
  • These tensions are not just historical but are also passed on to younger generations.
  • Despite the rivalry, both countries support cooperation on specific issues:
    • Sharing intelligence on North Korea's nuclear and missile programs (73% in Japan, 53% in South Korea).
    • Cooperating on international development projects in Southeast Asia (62% in South Korea, 58% in Japan).

Key Information

• The U.S., Japan, and South Korea publics share similar views on China's intentions and its role in the region.
• Internal divisions, particularly between Japan and South Korea, may hinder trilateral cooperation.
• Economic and security concerns about China are significant, but not as critical as domestic and global challenges.
• Publics support a balanced approach of cooperation with China on global issues and confrontation on territorial and human rights matters.
• The U.S. military presence is widely seen as beneficial for regional stability.
• There is a growing emphasis on shared democratic values in the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea alliances.
• Cooperation with China is still seen as necessary, but not at the expense of traditional alliances.

Conclusion

The publics in the U.S., Japan, and South Korea are wary of China's intentions and its growing influence, but they also recognize the importance of working with China on global challenges. However, internal divisions, particularly between Japan and South Korea, and a preference for maintaining strong U.S. alliances, pose challenges to deeper trilateral cooperation. The U.S. military presence remains a key stabilizing factor in the region.