20231009-华创证券-通信行业周报_关注国内外AI训练算力平台_光模块光器件有望核心受益_21页_2mb

• 行情回顾：本周通信行业（申万）上涨1.5%，跑赢沪深300和创业板指数，单周涨幅在全部一级行业中排名第六。截至2023年9月30日，通信行业PE-TTM估值为31.3倍，显著高于基准指数。板块内，精伦电子、中贝通信等涨幅居前，而中兴通讯、德科立则出现显著回调。
  • AI算力集群进展：本周重点分析了Tesla Dojo训练集群和华为Atlas 900 SuperCluster最新版本。Tesla Dojo已进入量产阶段，核心部件D1Die具备362 TFLOPS BF16/CFP8算力，每个机柜将产生40个400Gbps以太网接口需求，从而驱动光模块市场增长。华为新集群采用800GE高速接口，对800G光模块需求规模更大，加速高速光模块渗透。
  • 光模块受益分析：随着超大型AI训练集群的量产，400G和800G光模块面临巨大需求缺口。建议关注中际旭创（全球批量出货800G）、天孚通信（产品线扩展至高端光引擎）、光迅科技（垂直整合能力强，覆盖多个接口速率）。
  • 个股推荐：根据投资主题推荐不同公司：
    • 运营商：中国电信、中国移动、中国联通；
    • 设备及代工：共进股份；
    • 光模块光芯片：中际旭创、天孚通信、光迅科技、新易盛、源杰科技；
    • 光纤光缆：长飞光纤、亨通光电、中天科技；
    • 其他应用领域：IDC、物联网模组、控制器、卫星通信、军工通信、会议系统等。
  • 风险提示：下游经济下滑可能导致AI算力需求不及预期，光模块行业竞争加剧，算力产业链传导不畅，需密切关注。

# Summary of Communication Industry Report

1. Market Performance

• This Week: The communication industry (Shenwan index) rose by 1.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 and创业板 indices, ranking 6th out of all primary industries in terms of weekly performance.
• Year-to-Date Performance: With a cumulative gain of 34.61%, the industry significantly outperformed both the CSI 300 and the Ch weak bottom index over the past year, highlighting strong momentum.
• Valuation: As of the end of September 2023, the industry's PE-TTM valuation stood at 31.3x, a premium compared to CSI 300 (12.1x) and the ChiNext index (29.37x).
• Key Movers: Leaders such as Jinglun Electronics, Zhenle Communication, FiberHome, and China Star Hightech led the gains, while ZTE, Bird Group (Comtech), and ETComm saw substantial declines.

2. AI Training Infrastructure Progress

• Tesla's Dojo: Publicly announced in April 2019, Dojo entered full production in July 2023. Each target has 15-kW power density and 362TFLOPS BF16/CFP8 training performance. The system is designed for autonomous driving datasets but has broader training applications.
• Huawei Atlas 900 SuperCluster: Features 256P–1PFLOPS performance using over 5,000 Ascend 910 chips with 800GE ports and advanced Huawei StarRiver switches. It supports trillion-parameter models, finding broad applications in astronomy, weather forecasting, and autonomous driving.

3. Implications for Optical Modules Market

• Dojo Demand: Each Dojo cabinet (containing 2 system trays) requires 40x 400Gbps (50G/s) Ethernet interfaces, which when implemented via optical modules significantly boost the market need for high-speed optics.
• Huawei's New Clusters: Their adoption of 800GE ports creates substantial room for demand in 800G modules, jumping 40+ times in applications.

4. Equity Recommendations

• Telecom Operators: China Telecom, Mobile (CMCC), and联通 (China Unicom)
• Equip & Service Providers: Comtech, FiberHome Communication
• Optical Modules / Chips: Zheng Liang, Tianfu Communication, Optix (Huawei's module supplier) for top-tier performance and vertical integration.
• Others: Cable providers (e.g., Fiber Home, OFW), IoT Modules, Satellite Communications, etc.

5. Risk Factors

• Downside: Macroeconomic deterioration, slower AI adoption than expected, increased competitive intensity in the optical module sector, and potential disruption in data flow to/from AI clusters.

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