20260203-招银国际-敏实集团-00425.HK-Solid_growth_outlook_from_battery_housing,_robotics_and_AIDC_5页_740kb

Minth Group (425 HK) Summary

Core Content

Minth Group (425 HK) is a company with a solid growth outlook, driven by its core businesses in battery housing, robotics, and AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture). The firm has maintained a BUY rating, with an updated target price of HK$42.00, up from HK$38.00. The analysis highlights the company's ability to pass through raw material price hikes to customers, maintaining gross margins despite increased costs.

Financial Forecasts

Revenue

• FY23A: RMB20,524 million
• FY24A: RMB23,147 million
• FY25E: RMB25,945 million (+12.1% YoY)
• FY26E: RMB29,856 million (+15.1% YoY)
• FY27E: RMB34,519 million (+15.6% YoY)

Net Profit

• FY23A: RMB1,903.2 million
• FY24A: RMB2,319.3 million
• FY25E: RMB2,708.1 million (+16.8% YoY)
• FY26E: RMB3,245.7 million (+19.8% YoY)
• FY27E: RMB3,968.4 million (+22.3% YoY)

EPS (Reported)

• FY25E: RMB2.36
• FY26E: RMB2.84
• FY27E: RMB3.45

Valuation Metrics

• P/E (x):
  • FY23A: 19.3
  • FY24A: 15.8
  • FY25E: 13.5
  • FY26E: 11.2
  • FY27E: 9.2
• P/B (x):
  • FY23A: 2.0
  • FY24A: 1.8
  • FY25E: 1.6
  • FY26E: 1.5
  • FY27E: 1.3

Key Business Drivers

• Battery Housing: Expected to continue strong growth in FY26E, with rising NEV (New Energy Vehicle) sales volume in Europe contributing to this growth.
• Robotics: Minth has announced new components for humanoid robots, which are expected to begin contributing meaningfully to revenue from FY27E.
• AI Server Liquid Cooling System: This new business is also on track to contribute significantly to revenue in FY27E.
• Door Sealing System: Expected to contribute more than RMB0.5 billion in FY27E.

New Business Impact

• The new businesses (robotics and liquid cooling systems) are projected to contribute more than RMB1 billion in FY27E, which is not yet fully priced in the market.
• These new revenue streams are seen as a call option, meaning they could significantly enhance future earnings if they perform well.

Margin and Cost Management

• Gross Margin: Maintained at 29.1% in 2H25E due to effective cost pass-through.
• Aluminium Price Hike: Limited impact on margins, with only a small margin dent.
• US Tariffs: Limited impact as less than 4% of revenue is exposed to the 25% extra tariff effective from May 2025. Products from the Mexico plant are not subject to any US tariffs.

Key Risks

• Lower Revenue/Margins: Could affect the growth trajectory.
• Overseas Operations Risk: Higher than expected.
• Sector De-rating: Potential downward shift in the valuation of the sector.

Earnings Revision

• Revenue: Revised up by 0.6% for FY25E, 3.1% for FY26E, and 5.7% for FY27E.
• Net Profit: Revised up by 1.5% for FY25E, 5.7% for FY26E, and 8.3% for FY27E.
• Gross Margin: Slightly adjusted, but remains stable.
• Net Margin: Improved by 0.1 ppts in FY25E and 0.3 ppts in FY26E and FY27E.

CMBIGM vs Consensus

• Revenue: CMBIGM forecasts are -2.5% to -0.9% lower than consensus.
• Gross Profit: CMBIGM forecasts are -3.0% to -4.2% lower than consensus.
• Operating Profit: CMBIGM forecasts are -11.5% to -6.3% lower than consensus.
• Net Profit: CMBIGM forecasts are -2.4% to +2.9% compared to consensus.

Shareholding and Performance

• Chin Jong-Hwa's family: Holds 38.1% of shares.
• Invesco Asset Management: Holds 6.0% of shares.
• 12-Month Price Performance:
  • Absolute: 38.0%
  • Relative: 26.3%

Stock Data

• Market Cap (HK$ mn): 42,313.8
• Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn): 228.4
• 52-Week High/Low (HK$): 40.28/14.88
• Total Issued Shares (mn): 1,182.0

Analyst Certification

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect personal opinions.
• No part of the analyst’s compensation is directly related to the report’s content.
• The analyst has not traded in the stock covered within 30 days prior to the report’s issue and will not trade within 3 business days after.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10%.
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10%.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the broad market.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the broad market.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the broad market.

Important Disclosures

• This report is for informational purposes only.
• No investment advice is provided.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on the report.
• Use of the report is at the user’s own risk.

Legal Restrictions

• UK: Report is only for those under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Financial Promotion Order.
• US: Report is only for major US institutional investors. Not for public distribution.
• Singapore: Report is distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited, an exempt financial adviser. Not for public distribution.