欧洲对外关系委员会-重返非洲：北非国家为何向南看（英文）-2020.7-21页_306kb

A Return to Africa: Why North African States Are Looking South

Core Content

North African countries—Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt—are increasingly directing their attention and resources toward sub-Saharan Africa. This shift is driven by a combination of political, economic, and security factors, and it presents both opportunities and challenges for European cooperation with the continent.

Main Points

• Political Motivations:

  • Morocco has re-engaged with the African Union (AU) to gain support for its claim over Western Sahara.
  • Algeria, despite its historical influence, is re-evaluating its role in African security and diplomacy.
  • Tunisia is focusing on economic opportunities rather than geopolitical goals.
  • Egypt has taken a more active role in AU leadership, particularly concerning the Nile River and regional stability.

• Security and Migration:

  • All four countries are dealing with increased migration flows from sub-Saharan Africa, which has raised security concerns.
  • Morocco has attempted to position itself as a leader in migration management, while Algeria's non-interventionist stance has led to tensions in addressing migration.
  • Tunisia's migration situation is less severe but still marked by racial discrimination and lack of integration.

• Economic Strategies:

  • North African states are seeking new markets and economic partnerships in sub-Saharan Africa, especially as traditional European markets grow slowly.
  • Morocco has become a significant African investor, particularly in West Africa, with a focus on sectors like banking, telecommunications, and agriculture.
  • Algeria is trying to re-establish its economic footprint through trade agreements and infrastructure projects, though it faces regulatory and financial constraints.
  • Tunisia has limited economic engagement with Africa but is seen as having untapped potential in high-value sectors such as education, health, and IT.

• EU Considerations:

  • The EU should recognize that North African countries have distinct agendas in their engagements with sub-Saharan Africa.
  • There is potential for collaboration, especially in areas like development, renewable energy, and digital transformation.
  • However, the EU must be cautious about accepting North African offers of triangular cooperation, as some initiatives may not be welcomed or may have unintended consequences.

Key Information

• Morocco:

  • Rejoined the AU in 2017 and has focused on economic and diplomatic engagement with sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Has invested heavily in the region, particularly in West Africa, and has pursued soft power through religious and educational diplomacy.
  • Its bid for ECOWAS membership has been stalled due to concerns over market competition and regional balance.

• Algeria:

  • Historically a major player in African security and diplomacy, but its influence has waned due to political instability and economic challenges.
  • Has shifted towards a more security-focused approach in dealing with migration, often at the expense of diplomatic relations with sub-Saharan countries.
  • Recently announced plans to change its constitution to allow military participation in peacekeeping missions, signaling a potential shift in its strategic culture.

• Tunisia:

  • Has a low base of economic engagement with Africa, largely due to past focus on Europe and weak infrastructure.
  • Joined COMESA in 2018 but has not significantly expanded its trade with sub-Saharan countries.
  • Has potential in higher-value economic sectors, but lacks the necessary infrastructure and regulatory support to fully capitalize on it.

• Egypt:

  • Has taken a more active role in the AU, particularly in addressing the Nile issue and regional security.
  • Its leadership in the AU has increased its influence in African affairs, though it has not yet pursued an aggressive African strategy.

Conclusion

The North African turn to sub-Saharan Africa reflects a broader regional strategy to address internal challenges, secure economic growth, and assert influence on the continent. While this shift presents opportunities for collaboration with the EU, it also requires careful navigation of the complex and often competing interests of North African states and their African counterparts.