兰德-耦合竞争-探索美中关系的原型游戏（英）-2025.6_16页_608kb

Summary: "Coupled Competition" Game Analysis

1. Introduction & Overview

• Purpose: To model and analyze the strategic competition between the US and China, acknowledging the interplay between economic and geopolitical factors.
• Core Question: Can the US ensure a thriving economy without necessarily harming the Chinese one?
• Challenge: Orthodox economics suggests positive-sum outcomes, but ignores the fundamental geopolitical competition driving economic rivalry.
• Model Perspective: Uses a realist international relations theory perspective. This framework views the world as anarchic, states (US, China) prioritize survival, and competition is inherent.
• Game Design: A prototype game, "Coupled Competition," developed by RAND Corporation to explore this dynamic.

2. Core Concepts & Realist Theory

• Anarchy: No central authority; states act in self-help.
• Security First: States fundamentally seek survival.
• Geopolitical Focus: Economic competition is a result and instrument of the deeper geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, not its root cause.
• Coupled Competition: Aims to capture the deep economic linkages and competitive dynamics between the US and China.
• Key Dilemma: How can both sides succeed, or is the relationship inherently zero-sum?

3. Game Design

• Simplified Model: Players allocate a budget (representing GDP/national capability) among three categories: Consumption, Investment, and Security.
• Scoring System:
  • Economy Score: Driven by investment and prior economy size.
  • Popularity Score: (Proxy for regime/security) Driven by consumption and security.
  • Security Score: Dependent on investment and perceived competitor investment (with a delay).
• Balance of Power Index (B): Measures overall system stability, influenced by security, popularity, and attitude scores.
• Inputs/Outputs: Input: Attitude level (Cooperative, Limited Cooperation, Cautious, Hostile). Output: Updated Economy, Popularity, Security scores. Players reallocate limited resources each turn.
• Architectural Choice: Designed to be flexible, using tunable parameters to represent different theoretical models, initially configured for realism.

4. Playtest Results & Insights

• Perfect Information: First playtest (no hidden information) led to cooperation, stable system, economic growth and rising popularity for both sides. The Balance of Power index increased.
• Imperfect Information: Second playtest (distorted information) resulted in a security competition: security expenditure nearly doubled for both sides. The system became less stable. The Balance of Power index fluctuated significantly.
• Finding: The game design, even in its simple form, crudely illustrates realist dynamics. Imperfect information fosters distrust and escalates competition, hindering cooperation.
• Further Development Potential: Incorporating event cards, strategic motivations, nuanced information-sharing, automation, and refined models based on other IR theories.

5. Potential Development & Use

• Enhancements: Add event cards for external shocks, incorporate strategic goals (motivations), allow players more control over information sharing.
• Adaptability: Can be adapted to different levels of automation.
• Application: Useful for policymakers, researchers, and students to explore the long-term dynamics and decision-making patterns in US-China strategic competition under a realist framework.