卡内基国际和平基金会-The-Enlargement-of-the-European-Union-Consequences-for-the-CIS-Countries_28页_320kb

Summary of "The Enlargement of the European Union: Consequences for the CIS Countries"

Core Content

This working paper by Anders Åslund and Andrew Warner analyzes the impact of the European Union (EU) enlargement on the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. It discusses the economic, trade, financial, and systemic implications of the EU's expansion, emphasizing the differences in treatment between Central and Eastern European (CEE) accession countries and CIS countries.

Main Viewpoints

• EU Enlargement and CIS Countries: The paper highlights that the EU's enlargement to include ten former communist countries will have significant consequences for the twelve CIS countries. The effects are expected to be multifaceted, affecting growth, trade, financial flows, migration, and the overall economic system.

• Economic Transition and Growth: The transition process in CIS countries is still ongoing, with structural reforms playing a crucial role in economic growth. These reforms include liberalization and privatization, which are essential for moving from outdated communist-era industries to more market-oriented structures.

• Trade Impact: The paper suggests that CIS countries are at a disadvantage in terms of trade with the EU compared to CEE countries. The EU's trade regime is more favorable to CEE countries, which have implemented more reforms and are closer to the European economic center. The CIS countries, in contrast, face discrimination and have lower export shares to the EU.

• Trade Creation and Diversion: While the EU's enlargement could create new trade opportunities, the CIS countries are not benefitting proportionally due to their lower levels of reform and trade openness. The paper also explores the concept of trade diversion, where the EU's preferential trade policies may shift trade away from CIS countries to CEE countries.

• Structural Reform Index: A composite index of structural reform (73% liberalization and 27% privatization) is used to compare the progress of CEE and CIS countries. The CEE countries have a higher index value, indicating more advanced reforms, while CIS countries lag significantly behind.

• Institutional Differences: The paper emphasizes that CIS countries are likely to adopt different institutional structures compared to CEE countries due to their exclusion from the EU. This could lead to divergent economic development paths.

• Financial Flows and Migration: The EU accession may encourage financial flows and labor migration, which could have a positive impact on the accession countries but may pose challenges for CIS countries, especially in terms of wage pressures and economic integration.

• Euro Introduction: The introduction of the euro in accession countries could enhance their attractiveness to investors, but it may also lead to overvaluation if inflation does not converge to European levels.

Key Information

• Structural Reform Index: The index for CEE countries in 2000 was 0.88, while CIS countries scored only 0.63, indicating a slower transition process.

• GDP Per Capita: In 1998, the GDP per capita in CIS countries was only 14% of that in EU-accession countries, with Russia being an exception, as it was wealthier than some CEE countries.

• Trade Performance:

  • CEE countries increased their exports to the EU by 183% in U.S. dollars from 1992 to 2000.
  • CIS countries increased their exports by 162% in the same period.
  • Despite this growth, CIS countries still export a smaller share of their GDP to the EU compared to CEE countries.

• Trade Patterns: CIS countries primarily export natural resources to the EU, which are less competitive and politically less sensitive. However, their exports in agriculture and manufactures remain low, possibly due to geographic barriers, poor domestic conditions, or protectionist policies in the EU.

• Empirical Evidence: The gravity model suggests that CIS countries' trade to the EU should be higher than it is, indicating a potential distortion in trade relations. This distortion is estimated to be around 25% of their total exports.

• Future Outlook: The paper concludes that the current situation of discrimination against CIS countries by the EU cannot continue, and that structural reforms and closer integration with Europe are necessary for long-term economic growth.

Conclusion

The paper argues that the EU's enlargement will have significant and uneven effects on CIS countries. While they may benefit from increased trade and investment in the long run, they currently face disadvantages due to their lower levels of reform and trade openness. The paper calls for a reevaluation of the EU's trade policies toward CIS countries to ensure fair treatment and promote sustainable economic development.