2023-11-14-世界银行-巴西税收改革的分配影响_关于Cesta_Básica免税的情景（英）-2023.10-13页_13页_388kb

Summary of Distributional Impacts of Brazil’s Tax Reform

Introduction

The report analyzes Brazil's proposed constitutional amendment for a dual VAT system, which includes a potential tax exemption for a "National Basic Basket" (Cesta Básica Nacional) of goods. The goal is to assess distributional impacts under different scenarios, including reforms with reductions for essential services, exemptions, and targeted cashback schemes, ensuring fiscal neutrality.

Key Scenarios and Findings

• Status Quo (Flat VAT): A baseline scenario with a flat VAT rate that replaces current taxes at a revenue-constant level. It reduces inequality but keeps the tax system relatively regressive.
• Reduction and Full Cesta Basica Exemption: Exemptions for a full list of basic items (based on Law 10,925) and reductions on essential services. This slightly benefits lower-income groups by reducing their tax burden share by about 0.3pp, but may disproportionately benefit the rich on certain exempted items due to higher concentration in higher income deciles.
• Shortened Cesta and Cashback: A shorter list of exempted basic items, with revenues redirected to a targeted cashback for Cadastro Unico registered families. This scenario significantly reduces the tax burden on the poor, with the bottom three deciles seeing reductions of 26.3pp, 11.3pp, and 6.6pp in tax proportion, while the rich pay slightly more. A combined approach yields a progressive system.
• Focused Cashback (Flat VAT with Transfer): A flat VAT with full cashback for Cadastro Unico families recovers more than half of their basic basket taxes, funding transfers that boost incomes for the poor without increasing overall fiscal cost or regressivity.

Overall Impact on Poverty and Equity

Indirect taxes may negatively affect the vulnerable, but better-designed reforms with targeted cashbacks can mitigate this. Limiting exemptions and investing forgone revenues in cashbacks reduces inequality more effectively than broad-based exemptions, as shown by Kakwani indices ranging from regressive to progressive levels across scenarios. The richest bear most costs under exemption-based reforms, but targeted transfers ensure the poor benefit without harsh fiscal constraints.

Recommendations

To optimize the reform for equity:

• Shorten the Cesta Basica definition to concentrate exemptions on truly basic items.
• Implement a targeted cashback scheme funded by potential forgone revenues.
• Combine flat or reduced VAT with cashbacks for high-poor households to achieve a less regressive or progressive tax system, directly addressing poverty and inequality.