20250711-招银国际-Escalated_investment_in_instant_commerce_could_weigh_on_ST_profitability_7页_998kb
报告摘要
CMB International Global Markets
Equity Research
Alibaba (BABA US)
Company Update
- Escalated Investment in Instant Commerce: Alibaba is increasing investment in instant commerce to shape long-term e-commerce development.
- Target Price: $141.20 (down from previous $155.50).
- Analyst Rating: BUY.
Key Highlights
Financial Projections
- Q1FY26 Revenue: RMB245.7bn (1% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus).
- Adjusted EBITA: RMB37.9bn (16% YoY decline).
- Non-GAAP Net Income: Lowered by 9-18% due to higher investment.
- P/E: 14x FY27E (Non-GAAP).
Business Segments
- Taobao & Tmall (TTG): Expected adj. EBITA decline (20% YoY).
- Cloud Intelligence: 22% YoY revenue growth (driven by AI adoption).
- AIDC: 19% YoY revenue growth, aiming for profitability in FY26.
Investment Impact
- Instant Commerce Investment: RMB10bn-20bn in 2026, leading to profit margin pressure.
- Risk Factors: Delayed consumption recovery or margin impact beyond expectations.
SOTP Valuation
| Segment | EV/S Multiple | Value per ADS |
|---|---|---|
| Taobao & Tmall | 8.0x | $65.4 |
| AIDC | 1.5x | $13.9 |
| Local Services | 1.0x | $4.5 |
| Cloud Intelligence | 4.0x | $34.3 |
| Total Estimated Value | $141.2 |
Financial Summary
- Revenue Growth: 2.4% YoY (FY26E).
- Adjusted Net Profit Margin: 13.4% (FY26E).
- ROE: 9.9% (FY26E).
** Analyst Certification**
- The views expressed reflect personal analysis and comply with code requirements.
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