> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Employment and Social Trends: May 2026 Update Summary ## Core Content The **Employment and Social Trends: May 2026 Update** highlights the growing **labour market risks** stemming from the **Middle East crisis**, which has evolved into a **global shock**. The report focuses on the **impact on jobs, incomes, and workers**, particularly in the **Arab States** and **Asia and the Pacific**, and outlines **policy responses** and **sectoral exposure**. --- ## Main Findings ### Global Impact - The Middle East crisis has led to **higher energy prices**, **disrupted supply chains**, **reduced tourism**, and **weakened investor confidence**, creating **global economic uncertainty**. - The crisis is expected to have **significant and delayed effects** on the global labour market: - **Hours worked** could fall by **0.5% in 2026** and **1.1% in 2027**, equivalent to **14 million** and **38 million full-time jobs** lost. - **Real labour income** could decline by **1.1% in 2026** and **3% in 2027**, with **losses of USD 1.1 trillion** and **USD 3 trillion**, respectively. - **Unemployment rate** could rise by **0.1 percentage points in 2026** and **0.5 points in 2027**, adding **5 million** and **20 million** unemployed people. - These impacts are **not uniform**, with **Arab States** and **Asia and the Pacific** being the **most exposed regions** due to their **strong reliance on Gulf energy flows** and **energy-intensive supply chains**. ### Arab States Impact - The Arab States are facing **immediate and severe labour market risks**, with **hours worked** and **employment** projected to fall by **1.3% to 10.2%** and **0.7% to 5.9%**, respectively, depending on the **crisis scenario**. - **High-exposure sectors** include **trade, construction, manufacturing, agriculture, transport, and accommodation and food services**, with **40%** of employment in these areas. - **Informal workers, low- and medium-skilled workers, youth, and men** are particularly at risk, as they are more concentrated in high-exposure sectors. - The **severe escalation** scenario would result in a **shock more than twice as large** as during the **2020 pandemic**, with **hours worked** falling by **10.2%** and **employment** by **5.9%**. - **GCC countries** are more directly affected than **non-GCC** due to their **strong link to energy exports**, **transport logistics**, and **tourism**. ### Asia and the Pacific Impact - **Spillover effects** from the Middle East crisis are **already visible** and may **worsen over time**. - **Hours worked** could decline by **0.7% in 2026** and **1.5% in 2027**, while **real labour income** could fall by **1.5% and 4.3%**, respectively. - **High-exposure sectors** include **agriculture, transport, manufacturing, and construction**, with **22%** of workers in these areas. - **Tourism-dependent economies** and **labour migration** are particularly vulnerable, as **remittances** and **international travel** are affected by the crisis. ### Migration and Remittances - **Migrant workers** are likely to **absorb a disproportionate share** of the adjustment. - In **GCC countries**, a **1% decline in employment** among nationals leads to a **4% decline among non-nationals**. - **Labour migration** is a major **transmission channel** in **Asia and the Pacific**, with **declines in migrant outflows** and **rising repatriations**. - **Remittances** are beginning to show **downward pressure**, which could further **strain economies** reliant on these inflows. --- ## Key Policy Considerations - **Policy responses** have started but remain **uneven and limited by fiscal constraints**. - A stronger focus on **jobs, incomes, and business resilience** is needed to **mitigate the long-term effects** of the energy shock. - **Social protection measures** are being introduced in **Iran** and other affected countries to **support vulnerable workers**. --- ## Uneven Exposure - The **impact is uneven** across **regions, sectors, and workers**: - **Arab States** have **40%** of employment in high-exposure sectors, compared to **15% globally**. - **Asia and the Pacific** have **22%** of employment in high-exposure sectors. - **Transport services** is the **most exposed sector globally**, with **52%** of employment in high-exposure categories. - **Informal workers** are more exposed than **formal workers**, and **low- and medium-skilled workers** are more vulnerable than **high-skilled**. - **Men** are more exposed than **women**, due to their greater involvement in **high-risk sectors**. --- ## Country-Level Examples ### Iran - The crisis has led to a **6.1% decline in real GDP** in 2026. - **Inflation** is expected to rise by **over 13 percentage points**, significantly **eroding real wages** and **household incomes**. - **Human development** is projected to fall by **one and a half years**. - The government has introduced **short-term social protection measures**, including **continuing social security payments**, **expanding social assistance**, and **providing special credits**. ### Lebanon - The crisis has compounded **existing economic vulnerabilities**, including **high informality** and **large-scale displacement**. - **High-exposure sectors** include **agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and transport**. - The crisis is expected to **reduce hours worked and employment**, with **48% of youth** and **44% of men** in high-exposure sectors. - **Public and social services** are **less exposed** compared to other sectors. --- ## Outlook - The crisis is **not only regional** but has the **potential to cause wider macroeconomic instability**. - The **global labour market** is expected to **face a severe test** if the shock proves **durable**. - **Policy responses** must be **targeted and timely** to **prevent a prolonged downturn** in decent work and economic activity.