2026年5月就业与社会趋势报告_中东危机加剧的劳动力市场风险_20页_492kb

Employment and Social Trends: May 2026 Update Summary

Core Content

The Employment and Social Trends: May 2026 Update highlights the growing labour market risks stemming from the Middle East crisis, which has evolved into a global shock. The report focuses on the impact on jobs, incomes, and workers, particularly in the Arab States and Asia and the Pacific, and outlines policy responses and sectoral exposure.

Main Findings

Global Impact

• The Middle East crisis has led to higher energy prices, disrupted supply chains, reduced tourism, and weakened investor confidence, creating global economic uncertainty.
• The crisis is expected to have significant and delayed effects on the global labour market:
  • Hours worked could fall by 0.5% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, equivalent to 14 million and 38 million full-time jobs lost.
  • Real labour income could decline by 1.1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, with losses of USD 1.1 trillion and USD 3 trillion, respectively.
  • Unemployment rate could rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2026 and 0.5 points in 2027, adding 5 million and 20 million unemployed people.
• These impacts are not uniform, with Arab States and Asia and the Pacific being the most exposed regions due to their strong reliance on Gulf energy flows and energy-intensive supply chains.

Arab States Impact

• The Arab States are facing immediate and severe labour market risks, with hours worked and employment projected to fall by 1.3% to 10.2% and 0.7% to 5.9%, respectively, depending on the crisis scenario.
• High-exposure sectors include trade, construction, manufacturing, agriculture, transport, and accommodation and food services, with 40% of employment in these areas.
• Informal workers, low- and medium-skilled workers, youth, and men are particularly at risk, as they are more concentrated in high-exposure sectors.
• The severe escalation scenario would result in a shock more than twice as large as during the 2020 pandemic, with hours worked falling by 10.2% and employment by 5.9%.
• GCC countries are more directly affected than non-GCC due to their strong link to energy exports, transport logistics, and tourism.

Asia and the Pacific Impact

• Spillover effects from the Middle East crisis are already visible and may worsen over time.
• Hours worked could decline by 0.7% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, while real labour income could fall by 1.5% and 4.3%, respectively.
• High-exposure sectors include agriculture, transport, manufacturing, and construction, with 22% of workers in these areas.
• Tourism-dependent economies and labour migration are particularly vulnerable, as remittances and international travel are affected by the crisis.

Migration and Remittances

• Migrant workers are likely to absorb a disproportionate share of the adjustment.
• In GCC countries, a 1% decline in employment among nationals leads to a 4% decline among non-nationals.
• Labour migration is a major transmission channel in Asia and the Pacific, with declines in migrant outflows and rising repatriations.
• Remittances are beginning to show downward pressure, which could further strain economies reliant on these inflows.

Key Policy Considerations

• Policy responses have started but remain uneven and limited by fiscal constraints.
• A stronger focus on jobs, incomes, and business resilience is needed to mitigate the long-term effects of the energy shock.
• Social protection measures are being introduced in Iran and other affected countries to support vulnerable workers.

Uneven Exposure

• The impact is uneven across regions, sectors, and workers:
  • Arab States have 40% of employment in high-exposure sectors, compared to 15% globally.
  • Asia and the Pacific have 22% of employment in high-exposure sectors.
  • Transport services is the most exposed sector globally, with 52% of employment in high-exposure categories.
  • Informal workers are more exposed than formal workers, and low- and medium-skilled workers are more vulnerable than high-skilled.
  • Men are more exposed than women, due to their greater involvement in high-risk sectors.

Country-Level Examples

Iran

• The crisis has led to a 6.1% decline in real GDP in 2026.
• Inflation is expected to rise by over 13 percentage points, significantly eroding real wages and household incomes.
• Human development is projected to fall by one and a half years.
• The government has introduced short-term social protection measures, including continuing social security payments, expanding social assistance, and providing special credits.

Lebanon

• The crisis has compounded existing economic vulnerabilities, including high informality and large-scale displacement.
• High-exposure sectors include agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and transport.
• The crisis is expected to reduce hours worked and employment, with 48% of youth and 44% of men in high-exposure sectors.
• Public and social services are less exposed compared to other sectors.

Outlook

• The crisis is not only regional but has the potential to cause wider macroeconomic instability.
• The global labour market is expected to face a severe test if the shock proves durable.
• Policy responses must be targeted and timely to prevent a prolonged downturn in decent work and economic activity.