战略与国际研究中心-PONARS-Policy-Memo-214_4页_75kb

Russia's Relationship with China After September 11: Summary

Core Content

This document analyzes the shift in Russia's foreign policy priorities following the September 11 attacks, particularly focusing on the evolving dynamics between Russia and China in the context of global security and economic interests.

Main Foreign Policy Objectives

Russia's three main foreign policy objectives are:

• Establishing itself as a power in world politics
• Securing the territorial integrity and stability of its vast Eurasian landmass
• Participating in international trade and finance

China is considered less important for these objectives due to Russia's closer alignment with the United States in the post-9/11 era.

U.S.-Russia Cooperation Against Terrorism

• Terrorism and Intelligence Sharing: Russia joined the U.S. in the fight against international terrorism, providing crucial intelligence on Afghanistan and terrorist networks.
• NATO Involvement: Russia is now being considered for a decision-making role in NATO on counterterrorism and WMD proliferation, complicating its joint opposition to NATO expansion with China.
• Central Asian Security: Russia's support for U.S. military operations in Central Asia, including allowing bases on Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, and offering search and rescue assistance, has increased its strategic importance to the U.S.
• Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Russia's role in Central Asia and its status as a UN Security Council permanent member will remain significant even after the conflict in Afghanistan.

Implications for Russia-China Strategic Partnership

• ABM Treaty Dispute: Russia's pragmatic response to the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2001 weakens the strategic leverage China previously had through this issue.
• Nuclear Deterrence: Russia's cooperation with the U.S. on strategic stability may indirectly weaken China's nuclear deterrent.
• Chechnya and Taiwan: Russia's framing of Chechnya as an international terrorism issue reduces its diplomatic support for China's stance on Taiwan, diminishing the Chechnya/Taiwan linkage.

Regional Security Cooperation

• Central Asia: Russia's security cooperation with the U.S., Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan is more effective than its partnership with China.
• Confidence-Building Measures: Despite this, Russia still cooperates with China on regional security, as evidenced by the reduction of troops and equipment on the Chinese border.

Economic Relations

• Arms Sales: China remains an important market for Russian arms, and this relationship is unlikely to be weakened due to its economic significance, not strategic concerns.
• Defense Reform: Putin's emphasis on defense reform and modernization may lead to a renewed focus on foreign arms markets, including China.
• Energy Trade: China's role as an energy export market and potential investor in Russia's Far East energy resources remains important, especially in times of global economic downturn.

Prospects for Future Relations

• Japan's Role in Afghanistan: Japan is expected to play a more substantial role in post-conflict reconstruction than China, potentially leading to closer Russia-Japan cooperation.
• Korean Peninsula: Russia's improved relations with the U.S. reduce the need to oppose U.S. missile defense claims, potentially leading to a more flexible stance on North Korea and the division of the Korean peninsula.

Conclusion

• Strategic Shift: Putin's pragmatic foreign policy and the improved U.S.-Russia relationship have led Russia to reduce its emphasis on a strategic partnership with China.
• Economic Continuity: Despite the strategic shift, Russia's economic interests in China, particularly in arms and energy, will continue to drive the bilateral relationship.
• Non-Confrontational Stance: Russia does not intend to antagonize China, as it remains a key regional player and economic partner. Both countries share common interests in Eurasian stability and counterterrorism.