20160614-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb

FX Insights Summary - June 14, 2016

Core Content

This document provides an FX market analysis and outlook for various currency pairs on June 14, 2016. It includes daily price movements, short-term and medium-term outlooks, key targets, stop-loss levels, support and resistance levels, and an overview of upcoming economic data and central bank meetings.

Main Points and Key Information

1. USD/JPY

• Current Spot: 106.15
• Outlook: Bearish
• Immediate Target: 105.50/55
• Stop-Loss: Adjusted to 107.20 from 107.50
• Support: 105.55, 105.00
• Resistance: 106.80, 107.20
• 24-Hour View: The immediate target of 106.00 was exceeded, with USD dropping to 105.72. Downward momentum is not as strong as preferred, but the outlook remains bearish. A retest of 105.70/75 is expected, though a sustained move below this level is not anticipated.

2. USD/SGD

• Current Spot: 1.3555
• Outlook: Neutral
• Range: 1.3534-1.3670
• 24-Hour View: A short-term top is in place, and USD is expected to trade sideways between 1.3525 and 1.3595.

3. EUR/SGD

• Current Spot: 1.5305
• Outlook: Bearish
• Target: 1.5235
• Stop-Loss: 1.5425
• Support: 1.5240, 1.5235
• Resistance: 1.5390, 1.5425
• 24-Hour View: EUR extended its decline, but a strong rebound from the low of 1.5239 was unexpected. The pair is expected to consolidate within the range of 1.5275/1.5340.

4. GBP/SGD

• Current Spot: 1.9255
• Outlook: Bearish
• Target: 1.9020 followed by 1.8955
• Stop-Loss: Adjusted to 1.9500 from 1.9610
• Support: 1.9135, 1.9020
• Resistance: 1.9380, 1.9500
• 24-Hour View: GBP exceeded 1.9220 and touched a low of 1.9134. A retest of 1.9135/40 is likely, with further decline expected.

5. AUD/SGD

• Current Spot: 1.0010
• Outlook: Neutral
• Range: 0.9940/1.0105
• 24-Hour View: AUD rebounded to a high of 1.0055, and the recent downward pressure has eased. A consolidation phase is expected, with range trading likely between 0.9940 and 1.0105.

6. JPY/SGD

• Current Spot: 1.2780
• Outlook: Bullish
• Target: 1.2860
• Stop-Loss: 1.2660
• Support: 1.2710, 1.2660
• Resistance: 1.2860, 1.2920
• 24-Hour View: JPY exceeded 1.2820 and dropped to 1.2709. A retest of 1.2708/13 is likely, but a clear break below is not expected.

7. USD/MYR

• Current Spot: 4.0810
• Outlook: Neutral
• 24-Hour View: USD/MyR had a stronger start on Monday but eased lower overnight. Focus will now turn to CPI data for May.

8. USD/THB

• Current Spot: 35.18
• Outlook: Bearish
• Target: 35.10
• Stop-Loss: 35.33
• Support: 35.15, 35.10
• Resistance: 35.29, 35.33
• 24-Hour View: USD/THB is seen little changed around 35.20. Downward momentum is not strong, and a sustained break below 35.09 is unlikely.

9. USD/CNH

• Current Spot: 6.5980
• Outlook: Bullish
• Target: 6.6190
• Stop-Loss: Adjusted to 6.5810 from 6.5780
• Support: 6.5900, 6.5810
• Resistance: 6.6100, 6.6190
• 24-Hour View: USD/CNH turned bullish, with the immediate target of 6.6190 still in play.

10. CNH/SGD

• Current Spot: 0.2053
• Outlook: Bearish
• Target: 0.2040
• Stop-Loss: 0.2066
• Support: 0.2047, 0.2040
• Resistance: 0.2060, 0.2066
• 24-Hour View: CNH/SGD is expected to consolidate. A break below 0.2040 could not be ruled out, but the odds are not high.

11. EUR/USD

• Current Spot: 1.1290
• Outlook: Neutral
• Target: 1.4090
• Stop-Loss: 1.4400
• Support: 1.1255, 1.1200
• Resistance: 1.1330, 1.1415
• 24-Hour View: EUR rebounded directly without testing the 1.1205/10 support. A clear move above the strong 1.1330 resistance is not expected.

12. GBP/USD

• Current Spot: 1.4210
• Outlook: Bearish
• Target: 1.4090
• Stop-Loss: 1.4400
• Support: 1.4150, 1.4090
• Resistance: 1.4330, 1.4400
• 24-Hour View: GBP exceeded 1.4140 support and touched a low of 1.4117 before rebounding. A move towards 1.4090 is expected.

13. AUD/USD

• Current Spot: 0.7385
• Outlook: Neutral
• Range: 0.7260/0.7460
• 24-Hour View: AUD rebounded to a high of 0.7411, with the recent downward pressure eased. Range trading is expected between 0.7350 and 0.7410.

14. NZD/USD

• Current Spot: 0.7045
• Outlook: Bullish
• Target: 0.7105
• Stop-Loss: 0.7030
• Support: 0.7015/20
• Resistance: 0.7080
• 24-Hour View: NZD is expected to test the 0.7015/20 support. A move above 0.7105 would indicate a short-term low is in place.

15. FX Outlook for 3Q16 to 2Q17

• EUR/USD: Expected to trade between 1.12 and 1.14
• GBP/USD: Expected to trade between 1.48 and 1.53
• AUD/USD: Expected to trade between 0.75 and 0.80
• NZD/USD: Expected to trade between 0.72 and 0.75
• USD/JPY: Expected to trade between 111 and 116
• USD/SGD: Expected to trade between 1.35 and 1.40
• USD/MYR: Expected to trade between 4.05 and 4.08
• USD/THB: Expected to trade between 36.0 and 37.0
• USD/CNY: Expected to trade between 6.44 and 6.47
• USD/IDR: Expected to trade between 13,200 and 13,400
• USD/PHP: Expected to trade between 43.0 and 47.0
• USD/INR: Expected to trade between 70.0 and 72.2
• USD/TWD: Expected to trade between 31.3 and 32.3
• USD/HKD: Expected to trade between 7.80 and 7.80
• USD/KRW: Expected to trade between 1190 and 1230
• Interest Rate Outlook:
  • EU: 0.00%
  • UK: 0.50%
  • AU: 1.75%
  • NZ: 2.00%
  • JP: -0.20%
  • SG: 1.25%
  • MY: 3.25%
  • TH: 1.50%
  • PH: 3.00%
  • IN: 6.50%
  • ID: 5.25%
  • HK: 1.00%
  • TW: 1.38%
  • US: 0.75%

16. Central Bank Meetings 2016

• Federal Reserve (FOMC): Meetings in June, August, September, and October
• European Central Bank (ECB): Meetings in January, March, June, July, and August
• Bank of England (BOE): Meetings in June and September
• Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Meetings in February, March, and July
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): Meetings in January, March, and September
• Bank of Japan (BOJ): Meetings in January, March, and June
• Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM): Meetings in January, March, and October
• Bank of Thailand (BOT): Meetings in March, November, and December
• Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS): Meeting in April

Disclaimer

This analysis is based on public information and is subject to change. UOB Group may have positions in the currencies and financial products mentioned. Readers should assess the economic, legal, and tax implications before entering any transaction.