20240326-紫金天风-橡胶专题_胶易指南（一）_越南胶_21页_1mb

报告摘要

This report analyzes the rubber market focus on Vietnam-China trade, covering key findings from the Purple Gold Tianfeng Futures Research Institute.

SVR3L has lower impurities than SVR10, SVR10, and domestic substitutes like SCRWF; used in tire, shoe, and industrial applications; has better properties than SCRWF domestically.
SVR10 has high elasticity, wear resistance, and cold resistance; substitutes with domestic SCR10; lower impurities and ash content.
Physical property rankings: SVR3L > SCRWF > SCR5 > SVR10 > SCR10.

Vietnam export trends: 2023 saw mixed increases in rubber/Glu exports to China; 2024 January shows strong SVR10MIX exports, primarily of mixed glue types.
China export dominance: SVR10MIX accounts for 60% of exports; blends like SVR3LMIX follow. Mix categories for export include mixed glue and concentrate milk.
Global exports: Export mixes vary by country and type; focus on China and India primarily. Vietnam's exports include standard rubber (TSR), SVR3L, SVR10; all show mixed trends.

Vietnam inventory levels: SVR3L has lower stock compared to SVR10; overall, synthetic rubber/TSR inventory status higher than domestic types.
Import policies: Chinese imports of mixed glue from Vietnam at 0% tariff + 13% VAT; calculate import costs based on CIF prices and exchange rates. Imported standard rubber faces 20% tariff or ¥1,500/ton, applied tax depends on pricing; preferences for mixed glue due to cost and tariffs.

Price differentials: SVR3L-SVR10 spot gaps wide, expected convergence; historical comparisons: past strong periods for SVR3L-related factorials, future opportunities in RU05 or others are possible.
Importance-based sorting: Import relevance shows SVR3L > SVR10; inventory volume ranking: SVR10 > SVR3L > domestic types, with specific gaps in RT or mixes.

This summary is based on the analysis provided, focusing on market updates without financial advice.

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