> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Futu Holdings (FUTU US) 4Q25 Preview Summary ## Core Content and Key Insights Futu Holdings (FUTU US) is set to release its 4Q25 results on March 12, pre-market. The stock has experienced a **13% decline YTD**, underperforming the NASDAQ by 9ppts and trading at a **12x FY26E P/E multiple**, significantly discounted compared to its global peers. Despite market turbulence in the HK and US stock markets, Futu's key metrics are expected to remain resilient. The company is anticipated to see **modest sequential growth**, with **new funded accounts** expected to decline by **13% QoQ** to **220k** in 4Q25, but rise **3% YoY**. The **full-year addition** of **940k new paying clients** in FY25 is expected to bring the total number of paying clients to **3.35 million**, well ahead of the management's target. **Total client assets** are expected to remain **stable QoQ at HK$1.23tn**, driven by **robust net inflows** that offset **MTM losses** due to market volatility. The **4Q25 topline revenue** is projected at **HK$6.3bn**, a **2% decline QoQ** but **42% increase YoY**. **Net revenue** is expected to be **HK$5.5bn**, highlighting **cost efficiency**. **GAAP and non-GAAP net profit** for 4Q25 are forecasted at **HK$3.2bn** and **HK$3.3bn**, respectively, showing **73% and 70% YoY growth**, with **flat QoQ performance**. **Net margin** is expected to rise to **51.7%**, up **1.3pct** QoQ, due to improved **operating expenses**. ## Key Forecasts for 4Q25 - **New funded accounts**: 220k (down 13% QoQ, up 3% YoY) - **Total client assets**: HK$1.23tn (stable QoQ) - **Brokerage commission income**: HK$2.85bn (down 2% QoQ, up 39% YoY) - **Interest income**: HK$3.0bn (down 1% QoQ) - **Total revenue**: HK$6.3bn (down 2% QoQ, up 42% YoY) - **Operating expenses**: HK$1.6bn (down 7% QoQ) - **GAAP/non-GAAP net profit**: HK$3.2/3.3bn (up 73%/70% YoY) - **Net margin**: 51.7% (up 1.3pct QoQ) ## Key Metrics - **Trading volume**: HK$3.9tn (flat QoQ) - **Trading velocity**: 14.8x (down from 16.6x in 3Q25) - **Blended commission rate**: 7.3bps (down 0.2bps QoQ) - **MFSL balance**: HK$72.4bn (up 14.8% QoQ) - **Client idle cash**: HK$128.2bn (up 0.5% QoQ) - **CAC**: HK$2.42k (up 5.0% QoQ) ## What to Watch in Earnings Call 1. **New market entry plan for 2026E**: Expected to drive mid-term growth in client AUM and new client acquisition. 2. **New client acquisition guidance**: Management is projected to reach **800k new paying clients** in FY25, with **90% of the target achieved by 3Q25**. 3. **Synergies with Airstar Bank**: Continued progress in the **68% stake acquisition** and potential benefits for **HK stablecoin business**. 4. **VATP license evaluation phase II**: The HK SFC has issued a new VATP license to **Victory Fintech**, and Futu's progress could influence **crypto revenue expansion**. ## Valuation and Outlook - **Target Price**: US$228 (unchanged), implying **19x FY26E P/E**. - **Valuation Discount**: Current P/E of **12x** is a **50% discount** to the median of key peers. - **2026E profit growth**: Expected to be in the **high-teens range (19% CMBI est)**. - **Downside Risks**: - Underperformance in HK/US market turnover - Lower-than-expected retail participation - Operating expense overruns - Ambiguity on growth targets or delays in market expansion ## Financial Highlights | Metric | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25E | QoQ% | YoY% | |--------|------|------|------|--------|--------|--------| | Revenue | HK$4.695bn | HK$5.311bn | HK$6.403bn | HK$6.284bn | -1.9% | 41.8% | | Gross Profit | HK$3,946m | HK$4,640m | HK$5,609m | HK$5,487m | -2.2% | 50.1% | | Operating Profit | HK$2,685m | HK$3,344m | HK$3,904m | HK$3,897m | -0.2% | 75.8% | | Net Profit | HK$2,143m | HK$2,574m | HK$3,228m | HK$3,251m | 0.7% | 73.7% | | Non-GAAP Net Income | HK$2,217m | HK$2,660m | HK$3,312m | HK$3,330m | 0.5% | 70.6% | ## Shareholding and Performance - **Shareholding**: - Hua Li: 15.1% - BlackRock Inc: 4.7% - **12-month price performance**: - Absolute: -5.3% - Relative: -2.6% - **Market Share**: - HK stock market: ~40% (leading) - SG stock market: 30% (leading) ## Peer Comparison (P/E) | Company | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | Discount vs. Peers Median | |--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | Up Fintech Holdings | 7.3x | 6.5x | 5.5x | 5.8x | -48.6% | | Robinhood Markets Inc. | 37.6x | 32.5x | 27.1x | 22.1x | -50.0% | | Interactive Brokers | 30.5x | 26.9x | 24.3x | 21.1x | -52.6% | | Charles Schwab | 19.6x | 16.3x | 14.0x | 12.0x | -54.0% | | East Money | 27.2x | 23.9x | 21.8x | 19.7x | -50.0% | | Futu Holdings Ltd. | 14.0x | 11.9x | 10.4x | 9.1x | -50.0% | ## Analyst Ratings - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months. - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months. ## Disclaimer This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide individual investment advice. The information is subject to change without notice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors are advised to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.