2026-03-06-莱坊-Dutch_Logistics_Market_Report_2026_6页_3mb

Dutch Logistics Market Report Summary (2026)

Core Content Overview

The Dutch logistics market in 2025 showed signs of stabilisation after a period of correction, with investment volumes and rental growth remaining resilient despite broader European trends of softening demand and rising vacancy. The market is characterised by a shift in investor risk appetite toward core assets, increased occupier demand for modern and sustainable facilities, and a strategic position within Europe's logistics network.

Investment & Occupier Market

Market Stabilisation

• The Dutch logistics investment market stabilised in 2025, with total investment volume at approximately €3.1 billion, comparable to 2024.
• Despite being below previous market cycle peaks, transactional activity improved, indicating increasing market liquidity and narrowing pricing gaps between buyers and sellers.

Core Transaction Trends

• Core transactions increased in 2025, reflecting a gradual shift in investor risk appetite.
• Core+ and value add strategies still dominated, accounting for ~66% of transactions above €5 million in 2025, down from ~74% in 2024.
• The renewed interest in core assets was supported by stabilising yields and improved pricing transparency.

Major Transactions

• A landmark transaction in Moerdijk involved the sale-and-leaseback of the Benelux's largest logistics hub by DSV to a US REIT, valued at €330 million.
• P3 Logistic Parks acquired a portfolio of six logistics assets (totaling ~185,000 sqm) in the second-largest transaction of the year, highlighting continued demand for scalable, institutional-grade portfolios.

Rental Market

Rental Growth Trends

• Rental growth in 2025 remained positive across most markets, but at a moderate pace.
• Core locations such as Amsterdam/Schiphol, Rotterdam, Tilburg, Eindhoven, and Venlo continued to command the highest prime rents due to their strategic importance in international supply chains.
• Amsterdam/Schiphol recorded the highest prime rents, driven by its role as a key gateway for international trade and air cargo logistics.

Market Polarisation

• Modern and well-located assets with high technical specifications and sustainability credentials saw higher rental levels and shorter letting periods.
• Older and less efficient stock faced greater leasing challenges, with vacancy levels increasing to ~4.50%.
• Arnhem/Nijmegen and Bleiswijk/Waddinxveen emerged as resilient markets with competitive rental levels and strong occupier interest.

European Perspective

Market Resilience

• The Dutch logistics market mirrors European trends, with softer occupier demand and slower rental growth, but remains relatively resilient.
• Underlying demand is driven by structural forces such as supply chain modernisation, e-commerce growth, onshoring, and ESG-driven upgrades.

Rental Growth Forecasts

• Amsterdam is forecast to have one of the strongest rental growth rates in Europe at 4.4% CAGR over the next five years.
• Rotterdam is expected to grow at 3.9% CAGR, both above the 3.5% average for major European markets.

Core Assets and Market Dynamics

Core Market Constraints

• Core logistics locations in the Netherlands remain supply-constrained due to high build costs, nitrogen regulations, limited power grid capacity, and land scarcity.
• This has intensified the divergence between core and secondary markets, with secondary regions experiencing higher development activity but also greater vulnerability to vacancy and slow leasing.

Investor Strategy

• Investors are becoming more selective, prioritising assets and locations with proven resilience and long-term relevance.
• The focus on core assets underscores the importance of quality and location in driving rental levels and transaction activity.

Strategic European Gateway

• The Netherlands continues to play a central role in Europe's logistics network due to its strategic location and strong infrastructure.
• The Port of Rotterdam, Europe's largest container port, handles ~14 million TEU annually and remains a key gateway for global trade.
• The multimodal transport network and strong cross-border connectivity enhance the country's appeal for logistics operations.

Trade Reforms and Implications

• The EU-US trade agreement signed in July 2025 has improved market clarity.
• The removal of the €150 de minimis duty threshold (originally planned for 2029) will begin in July 2026, leading to higher import duties and increased customs declarations.
• This is expected to reduce the viability of direct-to-consumer parcel flows from Asia, prompting operators to shift toward consolidated bulk freight imports and European-based fulfilment networks.
• The Netherlands is well-positioned to benefit from this transition due to its scale, connectivity, and established logistics infrastructure, reinforcing its role as a key gateway for European e-commerce.

Rental Growth Forecast (2026–2030)

• A 5-year prime rental growth forecast for core European markets highlights the Netherlands' strong performance, with Amsterdam and Rotterdam leading in growth expectations.

Key Contacts

Europe

• Claire Williams – Partner, Head of UK & Europe Industrial Research
  Email: claire.williams@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 203 897 0036

• Mike Bowden – Managing Director of Europe
  Email: mike.bowden@knightfrank.cc
  Phone: +44 20 7861 1546

• Richard Laird – Partner - Co-Head of European Capital Markets
  Email: richard.laird@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 77 8987 8016

• Eddie Thomas – Partner - European Logistics Capital Markets
  Email: eddie.thomas@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 7776 769 937

• Judith Fischer – Partner, European Research
  Email: judith.fischer@knightfrank.com
  Phone: +44 20 3830 8646

Netherlands

• Geert-Jan Schraven – Partner - Capital Markets
  Email: g.schraven@nlrealestate.nl
  Phone: +31 6 29 73 59 89

• Maxim van Acker – Partner - Capital Markets
  Email: m.vanacker@nlrealestate.nl
  Phone: +31 6 34 89 01 81

• Sem Witteveen – Investment Analyst - Capital Markets
  Email: s.witteveen@nlrealestate.nl
  Phone: +31 6 14 76 67 93

Additional Information

• Knight Frank Research Reports are available at knightfrank.co.uk/research or www.NLrealestate.nl.
• Recent research reports include Active Capital 2026 and The Wealth Report 2025.