20220414-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_2页_161kb

Market Summary

Core Content

This summary outlines the key market developments and sector-specific updates from the provided document, focusing on the performance of various stocks and the broader economic and industry context in early 2022.

Main Market Highlights

• Basic Materials Rally: Market focus was on basic material stocks due to the rally in basic material prices and anticipation of strong 1Q22E results.
• Key Stocks Reached 52-Week Highs: China Coal (1898 HK), Zijin Mining (2899 HK), and China Shenhua (1088 HK) hit their 52-week highs.
• Hang Seng Index Performance: The Hang Seng Index advanced 55 points to 21,374 points, with a daily turnover of HKD100.2 billion.
• Social Distancing Policy Update: Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam is set to release the latest social distancing measures. With a 90% decline in COVID-19 cases from the peak, market expectations are for further relaxation, which is anticipated to benefit HK retailers and landlords.

Sector-Specific Updates

China Sportswear - Impact from the Recent COVID-19 Resurgence

• Earnings Guidance: Sportswear companies previously forecasted strong growth for 2022E, with Li Ning (2331 HK) expecting high teens to low 20s YoY growth, Anta (2020 HK) core brand >20% growth, Fila 15-20%, and Adidas MSD.
• Recent Impact: The recent resurgence of COVID-19 has caused concerns about offline activity, leading to a downward revision in earnings estimates for 2022-23E.
• Recovery Uncertainty: The recovery path remains uncertain and depends heavily on the government's control measures.

China Auto - EV Battery Updates

• NEV Production and Sales: China's NEV production volume increased by 115% YoY to 465k units in March, with sales growth of 117% YoY for NEV PVs and 70% YoY for NEV CVs.
• EV Battery Growth: EV battery production expanded by 247% YoY to 39GWh, with installation rising by 138% YoY to 21.4GWh.
• BYD Performance: BYD Co. (1211 HK) saw robust battery installation growth of 268% YoY, driven by capacity expansion and strong demand for its NEV models.
• Market Outlook: The market expects continued strong growth in EV battery installations in 2022, supported by the positive outlook for NEV sales.

China Coal - Weekly Updates

• Coal Price Trends: The CCTD QHD5,500 blended coal price remained flat for the fourth consecutive week, while the BSPI price dropped 0.1% WoW to RMB737/ton.
• Spot Price Decline: The QHD5,500 spot price edged lower by -1.9% WoW.
• Inventory and Consumption: Average coal inventory at QHD decreased by 0.4% WoW as of 10 April. Coal consumption continued to decline due to reduced heating demand and maintenance activities at power plants.
• Price Outlook: Market expects coal prices to gradually decline and stabilize over 2022E due to relatively balanced supply and demand dynamics.

Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

• Share Price Weakness: The share price of Sunny Optical experienced weakness following the release of its March shipment data.
• HLS Shipment Decline: Handset lens shipments in March were at 120m units (-8% YoY), below expectations due to a high base.
• HCM Shipment Decline: Handset camera modules shipments were at 47.9m units (-20% YoY), significantly lower than the guidance of 10-15% YoY growth.
• Reasons for Decline: The decline was attributed to lower contributions from global brand customers and weak domestic demand.

Zijin Mining (2899 HK)

• Share Price Surge: Zijin Mining's share price reached a 52-week high.
• Less Impact from Lockdowns: The company is believed to have the least impact from worsening lockdowns in China, as most of its copper and gold assets are overseas.
• 1Q22E Performance: Zijin reported a net profit of RMB6.12b (+144% YoY) in 1Q22E, contributing approximately 26% to the full-year consensus forecast for FY22E.
• Earnings Drivers: The growth was driven by increased sales volume and average selling prices.
• Copper and Gold Output: Mine-produced copper sales reached 174k tons (+53% YoY), and mine-produced gold reached 13.7kg (+17% YoY).
• Analyst Revisions: Following the 1Q22E results, some analysts have revised up their FY22/23E earnings estimates based on higher copper output forecasts.

Key Information

• Market Sentiment: Positive sentiment towards basic materials and anticipation of policy changes in Hong Kong.
• Sector Risks: China sportswear sector faces challenges due to the resurgence of the pandemic.
• EV Battery Growth: Strong growth in EV battery production and installation is expected to continue in 2022.
• Coal Market Outlook: Coal prices are expected to decline and stabilize over 2022E.
• Company Performance: Zijin Mining and Sunny Optical showed mixed results, with Zijin performing well and Sunny Optical facing challenges.

Disclaimers

• This document is for general information and not investment research or recommendation.
• Information is based on data from recognized sources and not independently verified.
• No representation is made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• MIB (HK) does not take responsibility for any loss from reliance on this content.
• Statements are current opinions and may change without notice.
• MIB (HK) may have positions in securities or commodities mentioned and may participate in financing transactions.
• The information is intended for MIB (HK)'s clients and may not be reproduced or distributed without consent.