战略与国际研究中心-Staying-in-the-Gulf--The-Changing-Cost-and-Strategic-Advantages_44页_2mb

Summary of "Staying in the Gulf: The Changing Cost and Strategic Advantages"

Core Content

This document analyzes the strategic importance of the U.S. military presence in the Gulf and the broader Middle East, emphasizing both the economic and security implications of maintaining this presence. It also examines the evolving cost structure of U.S. defense spending, highlighting how civil costs, rather than military operations, have driven significant increases in the defense budget and deficit.

Strategic Benefits of U.S. Presence in the Gulf

• Deterrence and Counterbalance to Iran: The U.S. presence helps counter Iranian influence and deter or defeat Iran through its support of Gulf Arab partners and their proxies in Syria, Hezbollah, and Yemen.
• Regional Stability: It limits Arab tensions and provides effective coordination and leadership of Gulf/GCC forces.
• Joint Operations and C3ISR: Facilitates coordination of joint operations, battle management, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C3ISR) capabilities.
• Air and Missile Defense: Critical to effective air and missile defense systems.
• Economic Significance: Ensures a stable flow of 20% of the world’s oil supplies and 4.1 TCF of LNG, vital for the U.S. and global economy.
• Support for Key Regions: Helps secure the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Indian Ocean, Red Sea, and Suez.
• Economic Impact on U.S.: The steady flow of Gulf oil and gas supports U.S. jobs and the economy.
• Trade Dependencies: Six of the 15 top U.S. importers and exporters come from Asian countries reliant on Gulf oil and gas, with total imports reaching $2.631 trillion in 2017 (13.5% of GDP), of which 41% came from countries dependent on Gulf oil.
• Containment of Regional Conflicts: Plays a key role in containing and defeating ISIS, AQAP, and other extremist groups, and helps reduce the risk of nuclear and chemical weapon crises.
• Containment of External Influences: Assists in limiting Russian, Turkish, and Chinese influence and arms sales in the region.
• Support for Iraq: Contributes to stability in Iraq by addressing sectarian, ethnic, and extremist conflicts.

Rising Civil Costs in Defense Budget

• Civil Costs Dominance: The rise in defense budget and deficit is primarily due to increasing civil costs, not the cost of U.S. military forces.
• Downward Trends in Defense Spending as % of GDP: Defense spending as a percentage of GDP and total federal spending has been declining, indicating a shift in priorities and resource allocation.
• CBO Projections: Civil costs are expected to rise sharply, while defense spending as a % of GDP will continue to decline through 2029.

Cost of War: A Changing Landscape

• Total Cost of Afghan and Gulf Wars: Well under $2 trillion, not $7 trillion, due to a shift in the nature of operations from large-scale ground combat to airpower and train-and-assist missions.
• Cost of Current Operations: Relies on host country ground forces and U.S. airpower, with a total cost of $120.4 billion to March 2019, including $238.3 billion if Operation Noble Eagle is included.
• Cost Trends: The Gulf War cost dropped from $148 billion annually in FY2008 to $14 billion in FY2019, reflecting a shift in military strategy and reduced conflict intensity.

U.S. Military Deployments in the Gulf

• Current Deployments: Approximately 16,929 U.S. military personnel are stationed in the Gulf, with additional forces in Syria and Iraq.
• Global Presence: Only 9% of U.S. active-duty personnel are deployed overseas, with 91% stationed in the U.S.
• Regional Partnerships: Gulf Arab partners contribute significant military assets, including tanks, aircraft, and naval units, and spend more on defense than Iran.
• Arms Imports: Gulf states placed $199.7 billion in new arms orders between 2008 and 2015, far exceeding Iran's $900 million.
• U.S. Arms Sales: U.S. arms sales dominate conventional arms transfer agreements in the Middle East, enhancing interoperability with regional partners.

Strategic Role of Gulf Petroleum and Infrastructure

• Gulf Oil Dependency: The U.S. remains dependent on the secure flow of Gulf oil, which is critical to its economy and key trading partners.
• Economic Impact: Gulf oil and gas are essential for U.S. energy security and economic stability.
• Net Imports in 2018: Gulf oil accounted for 1.6 MMBD of U.S. net imports, highlighting its strategic importance.
• Future Projections: The U.S. is projected to become a net exporter of petroleum liquids after 2020, with a potential return to net importer status by 2049 due to increased domestic consumption and decreased production.
• Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz: The strait is the world's most important oil chokepoint, with significant volumes of crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products passing through it.

Conclusion

The U.S. military presence in the Gulf is a critical strategic asset that supports regional stability, deters Iranian influence, and ensures the secure flow of energy resources. While the cost of war has decreased due to a shift toward airpower and train-and-assist missions, the overall defense budget is increasingly influenced by civil costs. The Gulf's energy infrastructure and oil exports remain vital to the U.S. economy, and maintaining this presence is essential for global energy security and geopolitical influence.