2022-01-23-瑞士信贷集团-美国的高通胀不太可能转移到亚洲_但会限制或损害市盈率_28页_2mb

Asia Pacific Thematic Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the implications of high US inflation on Asian equities, focusing on the transmission of inflationary pressures and their impact on P/E multiples and sector performance. It also provides insights into the global monetary and fiscal stimulus that contributed to the inflationary environment and how it is now adjusting.

Main Points

1. US Inflation and Its Transmission to Asia

• Low Transmission: US inflation is unlikely to significantly transfer to Asia, but it can affect Asian equities through P/E multiples and earnings.
• P/E Multiples Impact: High US inflation tends to cap or hurt P/E multiples in Asia, regardless of local growth conditions.
• Sector Correlation: Asian equities with high correlation (HC) to US inflation include financials, materials, energy, and industrials, while those with low correlation (LC) include consumer, telecom, healthcare, and utilities.

2. Global Stimulus and Its Effects

• Advanced Economies (AEs) Dominated: Approximately 90% of global fiscal stimulus and 55% of incremental money supply came from AEs.
• Emerging Markets (EMs): Some EMs experienced spillover effects from AEs' monetary policy, leading to increased money growth, though not all EMs were equally affected.
• Excess Stimulus: Both monetary and fiscal stimulus were excessive, leading to higher-than-trend retail sales and money supply growth.

3. Supply and Demand Dynamics

• Supply Recovery: As global supply responds to price signals, goods inflation should moderate, while services inflation may persist due to wage pressures.
• Demand Slowdown: Global retail sales are slowing and may have already fallen below trend, while monetary policy is tightening in AEs and EMs.

4. Inflation Persistence and Transmission

• Goods Inflation: More tradable and globally correlated, leading to inflationary pressures in other economies.
• Services Inflation: More localized, with limited transmission due to non-tradable nature and higher wage growth in services.

5. Market Implications

• Performance Shift: The easy gains from high US inflation are behind us, with HC stocks outperforming LC stocks in the past but not significantly since.
• P/E Premium Normalization: The P/E premium for LC stocks has normalized, suggesting future performance will be earnings-driven.

Key Information

• US Inflation Trends: US inflation is at its highest in the last four decades, with expectations rising both in markets and surveys.
• Labour Market Tightness: US has the tightest labour market, with wage growth above trend, contributing to inflation persistence.
• Sector Outlook: Financials are expected to perform well in a high US inflation environment, while LC stocks may see continued correction.
• Global Money Supply: Global money supply growth is moderating, but the stock of money as a percentage of GDP remains elevated.

Conclusion

• The US inflation is unlikely to significantly impact Asia's inflation levels but may affect P/E multiples and sector performance.
• Asian equities with high correlation to US inflation are more sensitive to inflationary pressures, while low correlation stocks are less affected.
• As global supply improves and demand slows, the inflationary impact on Asian equities is expected to diminish, with financials being the most resilient sector.