战略与国际研究中心-The-Security-Impact-of-the-Bhutto-Assassination_2页_120kb

The Security Impact of the Bhutto Assassination Summary

Core Content

The Bhutto assassination, as analyzed by Anthony H. Cordesman in his December 27, 2007 report, is viewed as a potential catalyst for significant political and security instability in Pakistan. The report explores the implications of the event on the country's political landscape and its broader security environment, particularly in relation to the Musharraf government and the potential involvement of various extremist groups.

Main Views

The report outlines several key considerations regarding the security impact of the Bhutto assassination:

• Political Stability: The assassination could lead to civil conflict if there is any suspicion that the Musharraf government was involved, even indirectly.
• Responsibility for the Attack: The identity of the perpetrator is crucial. If an Islamist extremist group such as the Taliban or al Qa'ida takes responsibility, it may unify public anger against these groups and their external allies. However, if a Pakistani sect or ethnic group is blamed, it could deepen internal divisions.
• Government Response: The Musharraf administration's reaction will determine the trajectory of the crisis. A crackdown without transparency may exacerbate public distrust, while a search for political consensus could help stabilize the situation.
• Leadership Transition: The report questions whether Sharif can take Bhutto's place and whether Musharraf will allow this, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding leadership continuity.
• Succession and Governance: The absence of a clear and powerful successor to Bhutto raises concerns about the future of the opposition and the stability of the political process.
• Military Role: The armed forces' response to the crisis is a critical factor. Their potential emergence as an independent political force could shift the balance of power in the country.
• Public Perception of the US: The report considers whether the assassination will alter Pakistani attitudes towards the US, particularly in light of the Bush Administration's push for democracy.
• Security of Nuclear Weapons: While not a primary concern, the report notes that nuclear weapons are securely stored and unlikely to be affected by public unrest or political instability.

Key Information

• Potential for Civil Conflict: If the Musharraf government is perceived as involved in the assassination, it could lead to widespread unrest and civil conflict.
• Conspiracy Theories: The lack of clear accountability for the attack may lead to a proliferation of conspiracy theories, further destabilizing the political environment.
• Unanswered Questions: The report highlights that many critical questions remain unanswered, including who was responsible, how secure Bhutto was, and the future direction of the government.
• Wild Cards: Several unpredictable factors could influence the outcome, including the possibility of new political consensus, the continuation of elections, and the reaction of the military.
• Security of Nuclear Assets: The report concludes that the security of nuclear weapons is not at risk due to their secure storage and the stability of the military.

Conclusion

The Bhutto assassination represents a pivotal moment in Pakistan's political and security history. Its impact will be shaped by a complex interplay of factors, including the identity of the perpetrators, the government's response, and the broader political climate. The report emphasizes that the event could lead to prolonged instability and tension, with far-reaching consequences for the country's governance and international relations. The security of nuclear weapons, however, is considered a non-critical factor in this context.