2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Euro_Area_Policies_Selected_Issues_112页_2mb

Summary of Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues (July 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the medium-term risks to growth and inflation in the Euro Area, focusing on structural weaknesses, crisis legacies, and the implications of policy measures such as quantitative easing (QE) and non-performing loan (NPL) resolution. It also outlines policy options for tackling NPLs and discusses the governance of structural reforms.

Main Risks from Low Growth and Inflation

A. Motivation

• Output per capita growth in the Euro Area has stagnated since the global financial crisis, widening the gap with the US.
• The Euro Area has not recovered pre-crisis output per capita levels, and the gap with the US is now at its highest since EMU began.
• The crisis has left high unemployment and significant public and private debt, which are compounded by low potential growth and limited policy space.

B. Output per Capita: Diagnosis and Prospects

• Output per capita can be broken down into labor input, capital per capita, and total factor productivity (TFP).
• Labor: The labor input per capita declined during the crisis, and aging populations are expected to limit future employment growth. High unemployment, especially among youth and long-term jobless, increases the risk of hysteresis.
• Capital: Capital accumulation has slowed, and investment-to-capital ratios have fallen. The decline is more pronounced in the Euro Area compared to the US, and recovery is expected to be slow.
• TFP: TFP growth in the Euro Area has slowed significantly, especially in the service sector, due to slow adoption of ICT. The productivity gap with the US has started to widen again.

C. Crisis Legacies: Progress and Prospects

• High Unemployment: The Euro Area unemployment rate remains above 11%, with some countries like Greece and Spain near 25%. Natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is expected to stay high in several countries.
• High Debt: Deleveraging has occurred in the private sector, but debt-to-GDP ratios remain above pre-crisis levels. Households and firms still face significant debt burdens, which suppress demand and delay recovery.
• Impact on Demand: Persistent high unemployment and debt overhang continue to suppress aggregate demand and hinder investment recovery.

D. An Illustrative Downside Scenario

• A simulation shows that a 25% drop in investment growth would reduce output by 1.25% below baseline by 2020.
• Inflation would fall to near zero, and real interest rates would rise by 65 basis points.
• The current account would improve by 0.4 percentage points of GDP, but the output gap would widen.
• A second shock, an increase in risk premia by 100 basis points, would lead to an output loss of nearly 2% by 2020, with the output gap widening by 1.25 percentage points and the recovery delayed by 3-4 years.

Quantitative Easing (QE)

A. Introduction

• QE has been implemented to stimulate economic activity and support inflation.

B. QE's Transmission Channels and Initial Assessment

• QE primarily affects the financial sector, improving liquidity and reducing risk premia.
• It has had a limited impact on aggregate demand due to the zero lower bound on interest rates and limited fiscal space.

C. Simulations of Impact of QE and Spillovers

• The simulations suggest that QE can help reduce the output gap and improve inflation, but its effectiveness is constrained by the zero lower bound and limited fiscal stimulus.
• QE may also influence exchange rates and inflation expectations, with potential spillover effects on other economies.

D. Implementation and Design of Asset Purchases

• The Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) is a key mechanism for asset purchases.
• The design of asset purchases includes considerations of the target market size, maturity terms, and the need for active securities lending.

E. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

• QE remains a critical tool, but its impact is limited by structural issues and policy constraints.
• Complementary fiscal and structural reforms are necessary to enhance the effectiveness of QE.

Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in the Euro Area

A. Introduction

• NPLs pose significant macro-financial risks, especially in the context of weak banking systems and low growth.

B. Macro-Financial Implications of NPLs

• NPLs reduce bank capital and lending capacity, affecting economic activity and financial stability.
• They also raise concerns about the sustainability of public debt and the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

C. Impediments to NPL Resolution

• Structural issues such as weak legal frameworks, lack of transparency, and limited market mechanisms hinder NPL resolution.
• International experience shows that NPL resolution requires coordinated efforts and tailored solutions.

D. Comprehensive NPL Resolution Strategy

• A multi-pronged strategy is proposed, including the use of asset management companies (AMCs), improved legal frameworks, and enhanced market mechanisms.
• The role of AMCs is highlighted, particularly in creating markets for distressed debt.

E. Conclusion

• Effective NPL resolution is essential for restoring financial stability and promoting growth.
• Policy recommendations include strengthening legal and regulatory frameworks and improving transparency.

Euro Area Structural Reform Governance

A. Why Structural Reform Governance?

• Structural reforms are crucial for improving productivity, competitiveness, and long-term growth.

B. The Current Framework: How Effective?

• The current governance framework has had mixed results, with some progress but limited effectiveness in addressing structural issues.
• The European Semester and Country-Specific Recommendations (CSRs) have been used to promote reforms, but compliance and implementation remain inconsistent.

C. Strengthening Incentives

• Incentives for structural reforms need to be improved to ensure better implementation and compliance.
• Better coordination between fiscal and structural policies is essential.

D. Beyond the Near-Term: Moving to a Structural Union

• Long-term structural reforms are necessary to create a more integrated and resilient Euro Area.
• These reforms include harmonizing labor markets, improving financial regulation, and enhancing fiscal coordination.

E. Summary and Conclusions

• Structural reform governance is key to addressing long-term challenges.
• A more integrated and coordinated approach is needed to ensure sustainable growth and stability.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Actual and Pre-crisis Trend Output for Euro Area and US.
• Figure 2: Actual and Potential Output for Euro Area and US.
• Figure 3: Contribution to Growth in Hours Worked per Capita.
• Figure 4: Simulation Results: Investment Shock.
• Figure 5: Simulation Results: Investment and Risk Premium Shocks.
• Table 1: Results from an Illustrative Downside Scenario.
• Table 2: Overview of Asset Purchases under the PSPP.
• Table 3: Comparative Analysis of Selected European and International AMC Initiatives.

References

• The report cites various studies and data sources including the IMF, ECB, Eurostat, and the European Commission.

Annexes

• Annex I: Securities Lending under the Expanded Asset Purchase Program (APP).
• Annex II: The Expanded Asset Purchase Program (APP).

Conclusion

• The Euro Area faces significant risks from low growth and inflation, exacerbated by structural weaknesses and crisis legacies.
• QE and NPL resolution are important tools, but structural reforms and improved governance are essential for long-term stability and growth.