2023-12-06-美联储-货币借贷与支出_债务替代与货币政策的套现再融资渠道_62页_838kb

Monetary policy affects economic activity through the cash-out refinancing channel, which involves households extracting equity from their homes to boost consumption. However, this study finds that higher mortgage rates primarily discourage substitution toward other borrowing products rather than stimulating new borrowing. Using data from the 2013 Taper Tantrum—a monetary policy surprise that sharply increased mortgage rates—the authors show that increases in cash-out refinancing are offset by higher borrowing through alternative channels like credit cards, personal loans, HELOCs, and second mortgages. This "debt substitution" substantially weakens the cash-out refinancing channel of monetary policy transmission.

Key findings include:

• The quantity and probability of cash-out borrowing decline with higher mortgage rates, but this is offset by an increase in alternative borrowing.
• Borrowers with high refinancing incentives (those in-the-money) substitute away from cash-out refinancing to other loan products. Less incentified borrowers are more likely to substitute into cash-out refinancing when rates fall (or out of it when rates rise).
• Total new household borrowing is surprisingly little affected by mortgage rate changes overall (elasticity is near zero on aggregate), even though the effects are partially nonlinear and vary by borrower.
• The path-dependent effects of past mortgage rates on borrowing (via the refinancing channel) are also substantially offset by substitution effects, though cash-out refinancing remains more potent than rate-term refinancing in potentially stimulating near-term spending.

In conclusion, while cash-out refinancing is a channel, the significant influence of debt substitution means the overall effect of monetary policy on new borrowing is likely weaker or less path-dependent than previously thought.