20230723-中国银河-热点与高频_四组负增长变量_通胀率_民间投资_房地产_进出口_9页_2mb

Macroeconomic Weekly Summary: China's Economy and Markets July 23, 2023

Negative Indicators

• Nominal GDP Growth: Q2 nominal GDP rose 4.8%, with actual GDP at 6.3%, leading to a -15% GDP deflator.
• Inflation: CPI fell to 0.0%, with non-food CPI dropping to -0.6%. PPI remained negative for nine consecutive months, at -54.0% by June.
• Private Investment: 1-6 month cumulative growth rate -0.2% (-0.1% year-on-month), share of fixed asset investment at 53.0%, down from 56.4%.
• Real Estate: 1-6 month housing sales growth -28.0%, with 70-city second-hand home prices down -28.0% YoY;一线 cities turned negative for the first time.
• Trade: 1-6 month export growth -32.0%, import -67.0%, reflecting external demand pressures.

Market Trends

• Domestic: Upward pressure on key indices; e.g., Shanghai Composite declined 1.3%, 10-year bond yield fell 286 basis points. USDCNY rose to 7.18 amid dollar strength.
• Overseas: Dollar index above 100; US stocks mixed, with Dow Jones up 2.08%. Commodities like copper and oil experienced volatility.

Key Events

• Russia suspends Black Sea grain deal, impacting international wheat prices, as Ukraine's exports previously supported market stability.
• US-China interactions: Meetings include climate envoy talks, with ongoing tensions in military exchanges due to recent sanctions and Taiwan-related actions.

Risks

• Deflation hazard: Ongoing weak demand, with PPI and CPI unlikely to turn positive soon.
• Policy delay risks and external recession threats from the US, Europe, and global slowdown.

Upcoming Calendar Highlights

• Key events: US Fed interest rate decision, Eurozone inflation data; China's August PMI releases.

This summary is based on the China Galaxy Securities weekly report and highlights critical data and risks.