卡纳基-缩小美中在导弹防御上的差距：如何帮助阻止核军备竞赛（英文）-2020.7-83页_14mb

NARROWING THE U.S.-CHINA GAP ON MISSILE DEFENSE: SUMMARY

Core Content

This report examines the growing perception gap between the United States and China regarding missile defense systems and their implications for strategic stability and nuclear deterrence. It highlights how this gap, rooted in ambiguity and misinterpretation, threatens to escalate tensions and potentially lead to a nuclear arms race. The author, Tong Zhao, emphasizes the need for a more transparent and cooperative dialogue to address these issues and prevent further destabilization.

Main Views

• Perception Gap: A significant and growing misperception exists between the U.S. and China about the intent and capability of each side's missile defense programs.
• U.S. Intent: Washington claims its missile defense systems are only aimed at countering threats from "rogue states" like North Korea and Iran, not at undermining China or Russia's nuclear deterrents.
• Chinese Concerns: Beijing perceives U.S. missile defense as a potential threat to its strategic nuclear deterrent, particularly the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system and regional systems like THAAD.
• Ambiguities: Three main sources of ambiguity contribute to the perception gap:
  1. Unclear Chinese rationale for the threat posed by U.S. missile defense.
  2. Unclear U.S. intentions and capabilities regarding missile defense.
  3. Ambiguous Chinese responses to U.S. missile defense, which may be driven by broader geopolitical goals.

Key Information

The Ambiguities

1. Chinese Views on U.S. Missile Defense:

   • China's expressed concerns about U.S. missile defense are vague and inconsistent.
   • There is a lack of clarity on how U.S. missile defense affects China's nuclear deterrent compared to its regional deterrent.
   • Chinese concerns often blend specific military threats with broader geopolitical anxieties.

2. U.S. Missile Defense Ambiguities:

   • U.S. policies and capabilities are perceived as ambiguous by China.
   • There is confusion about whether U.S. strategic missile defense systems are aimed at China or other threats.
   • Emerging technologies like airborne and space-based interceptors and directed energy weapons raise Chinese fears of a shift toward more offensive capabilities.

3. Chinese Response Ambiguities:

   • China's response to U.S. missile defense may not be solely defensive but could serve other strategic and political goals.
   • Chinese investments in countervailing technologies are seen by the U.S. as possibly linked to broader ambitions, not just a direct response to missile defense.

Recommendations

• China should:

  • Clarify its internal threat assessments and policy objectives.
  • Define and communicate its requirements for countervailing capabilities.
  • Specify the role of its theater-range nuclear missiles.

• United States should:

  • Demonstrate transparency in distinguishing between strategic and theater missile defense systems.
  • Engage in open discussions with China about its domestic missile defense policy.
  • Consider a mutual commitment on "no first use" of nuclear weapons to alleviate Chinese concerns.

• Joint Efforts:

  • Both sides should collaborate on research using open-source data to address technical disagreements.
  • Work together to assess North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities and their regional implications.
  • Implement confidence-building measures similar to Cold War-era arms control efforts to reduce the risk of misinterpretation and escalation.

Conclusion

The U.S.-China missile defense dispute is a critical issue that risks undermining strategic stability. Addressing the ambiguities through dialogue and cooperation is essential to prevent a nuclear arms race and to manage the broader security implications of this rivalry. Given the current global context of weakening arms control institutions and rising nuclear ambitions in China, the urgency to resolve this issue has never been greater.